Initial Games and Pick 'Em Observations

Only a few days removed from the conclusion of the 2014 CrossFit Games, I haven't quite had time and energy to completely digest what took place.  Trust me, there is more analysis to come dealing the Games from a variety of angles, but for now, let's start with some quick observations.

• I had the good fortune of being able to attend the Games in person (thanks to my wife for the birthday surprise!), so I can't comment on the quality of the TV product, but the intensity in-person for the prime-time events was top-notch.  In particular, the conclusion of the Saturday night event ("Push Pull") was probably the most exciting individual event I've witnessed.  The crowd's reaction when Froning took the lead, when it looked for the first time all weekend that the real Rich Froning had arrived, was powerful.  But for Josh Bridges to go unbroken on the last set of handstand push-ups and then hold off Froning on the final sled drag was really something special.
• One of the underrated moments of the in-person experience came as we were leaving the venue Saturday night and a buzz went through the departing crowd as the JumboTron showed the updated men's overall standings with Froning out front for the first time since Friday morning.  You really got the sense that the spectators were fans, not just CrossFitters there to support the athlete from their local box.
• Also super-cool was the "Fra-ser" chant in a small but vocal section of the crowd before the men's final.  Don't get me wrong, Froning was still the clear fan favorite, but this was a neat moment to hear the support for the underdog.
• The Muscle-up Biathlon was also a pretty thrilling event, both for the men and women.  For the women in particular, the race between Camille and Julie Foucher (still in contention for the title at that point) was pretty nuts.  And I'm not sure if this is a good or bad thing, but when Foucher was no-repped at the end of her round of 12, I heard the first real booing at a CrossFit event.  People friggin' LOVE Julie Foucher, and they HATE no-reps.
• Now let's get to some numbers.  Based on the CFG Analysis predictions, Cassidy Lance finishing in the top 10 was the third-longest shot to come through dating back to the 2012 Games.  I had her with a 2.3% chance of reaching the top 10.  The only two longer shots were Anne Tunnicliffe in 2013 (2.2% chance of top 10) and Kyle Kasperbauer in 2012 (1.2% chance of podium).  There were really no major long-shots on the men's side this year.  Jason Khalipa for podium had the lowest chances at 9.1%.
• The winner of the pool was JesseM with 134.7 points.  He had some great picks, including 6 points on Lauren Fisher to finish top 10. However, he had far from the ideal set of picks.  That would have been the following:
• 1 Rich Froning win
• 1 Jason Khalipa podium
• 1 Tommy Hackenbruck top 10
• 1 Camille Leblanc-Bazinet
• 1 Annie Thorisdottir podium
• 15 Cassidy Lance top 10
• Total score of 688.7!
• I wrote a piece a couple weeks ago in which I mentioned that prior Games experience was worth approximately 4-5 spots at the Games.  The results from this season were consistent with that.  It seems fair to say that the advantage of having experience at the Games is real.
• Despite not including the impact of past experience in my model, the calibration of my predictions turned out to be pretty solid again this year.  Now with three years of data, below is a chart showing the calibration of my top 10 predictions.

Over the next few weeks, I'll be breaking the Games down in more depth, in particular digging more into the programming, how it compares to years past and what it might tell us about the future.  That's it for today, so good luck in your training, and I'll see you back soon.