The 2014 Open season is finally here, folks. That means another chance to test your fitness against 70,000 men and 40,000 women (and counting). But perhaps more importantly, it means another chance to test your ability to make modestly substantiated, vaguely scientific predictions about what each Open workout will be!
Welcome to Fun with SWAGs, 2014 Edition (SWAG: Scientific Wild-Ass Guess).
Today's prediction for 14.1 will be less SWAG, more WAG, since every movement is still on the table and we can't really rule much of anything out. However, that doesn't mean we can't narrow things down at all.
First, let's limit the movements to those that have been programmed in the Open in the last three years. Considering no new movements were added to the Open programming in 2012 or 2013, I think it's a pretty fair assumption that no new ones will be added this year. In any case, it's good enough for a SWAG.
Next, consider that either burpees or snatches (or both) have come up in the first Open workout in each of the past three years. Not coincidentally, these are also the two most heavily-programmed movements across the three Opens. So let's assume at least one will come up in 14.1.
How about time domain? Well, broadly, we can assume it will be between 4 and 20 minutes (the min and max of all Open workouts historically). Beyond that, I'm not sure we can narrow it down a whole lot, since the first Open workout has been 10, 7 and 17 minutes in 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively. But since we need to make a specific guess, I'll assume that they back off the 17 minutes from last year and put this one in the 10-12 minute range.
Now, let's start to put something together. I do not think they will repeat 13.1, since that was basically a combination of two prior Open workouts already (12.1 and 12.2). I think there will be a repeat workout this year, but I believe it will be 13.4 (cleans and jerks and toes to bar). That one doesn't satisfy my criteria of having burpees or snatches, so that leads me to believe 14.1 will be brand new. I'll also go ahead and assume it will not have both snatches and burpees this time, but I do believe it will be a couplet. I think the weight will be light-to-moderate, in order to attract as many entrants as possible in the final few days.
OK, with all that said, it's time to make a pick. My SWAG for 14.1 is:
AMRAP 10 of 20 burpees (bar-facing), 20 deadlifts (155/105)
Think you have a better idea? Post your SWAG to comments. Enjoy the Open everyone!
I think this SWAG is on point. Mad SWAG, you might say. I have a different idea: I think it will be a throwback to 11.1- 10 minute AMRAP of 7 squat cleans at 115lbs and 30 double unders. I have a wild hunch that the main site has been foreshadowing the 115 lb weight recently.
ReplyDeleteI disagree with the DU because the last 2 years have shown they learned how to put higher skilled movements later in workouts when beginners won't even get to them.
ReplyDeleteHow about a 7:00 AMRAP of burpee box overs? A twist on the burpees of 12.1 but with box jumps that don't have the controversy of a regular box jump since you don't have to open your hips on the top and don't run the risk of rebounding injuries.
That would be a cool one actually. Might be more of a lung burner than the 7:00 of burpees.
DeleteI like the deadlift and burpees over the bar pick; however, I think they will do escalating weights and start a bit heavier. Perhaps starting at 185/135 and going up 20 lbs each round.
ReplyDeleteI'm also basing my SWAG on pictures that CF North Atlanta has posted on their FB page and there's a small two man rig on one side of the staging area. That suggests there's a really good chance that we'll see pullups or T2B or my personal guess......burpee pullups.
ReplyDeleteIt's to one side as opposed to being in the center so I'm guessing there's also a barbell component so give me some kind of ladder style WOD with increasing weight in C&J's and burpee pullups.
Have you ever thought of analyzing the CrossFit.com workouts for the week before Open workouts to see if they are staying way from movements that are used in the open workout that week? Could be some interesting data.
ReplyDeleteYou might be onto something there. I went back and looked at March 2013 and it does look like they didn't pound those movements right before the announcement. No burpees or snatches the week before 13.1. 13.2 is little harder b/c it had shoulder to overhead, deadlift and box jump but they only hit some 185lb deads in the week prior. 13.3 (wall ball, double under, muscle up) the closest they got was a day with very light shoulder press and front squat and four days prior some bar muscleups. 13.4 (C&J & T2B) they did have some 135lb hang cleans two days prior and some K2E three days prior. 13.5 (thruster and C2B) they programmed burpee pullups and heavy thrusters but they were four and five days prior.
DeleteThere might be some merit to that theory. If that holds true, it would really hurt my prediction considering they just programmed a bunch of burpees and 135lb clean and jerks on Tuesday. Mainsite programming seems to have gotten even more random this year though, at least I thought so?
I have a feeling that clusters will show up somewhere.
ReplyDeletehttp://predictionbook.com/predictions/23753
I should've just stuck with my 11.1 comment...
ReplyDeleteWell that announcement sucked.....buzzkill
ReplyDeleteYeah, I don't hate it, but I was hoping for something new. I think we were all right on about the time domain, but I was pretty convinced there would be burpees.
DeleteHowever, you guys might be onto something with the main site theory. There have not been snatches or double-unders posted in over a week.