Monday, June 23, 2014

Introducing the CFG Analysis 2014 Games Pick 'Em - NOW OPEN

I've toyed with the idea of putting together some sort of CrossFit Games pool or contest for the past couple of years, but a couple of things held me back.  One, I wasn't sure if there was enough interest and enough readership here to support it; and two, I really didn't know how a CrossFit Games pool should work.

Given the pretty decent volume of responses we got for the SWAG's during this years' Open, I think (hope?) there is enough interest to do something more formal for the Games this year. So we're going to try and see what happens.

But how will it work? Well, since the CrossFit Games are unlike most sports where you see pools or pick 'em contests (NCAA basketball, college football bowls, World Cup), the set-up of this contest will be decidedly different as well. It will also give me a chance to put some of the analysis I've been doing here to use. So here's the set-up:
  • Around the beginning of July, I will release my predictions for this year's CrossFit Games. These predictions, like last year, will contain the expected chance of each individual athlete winning, placing top 3 and placing top 10. These predictions are based almost entirely on the results from this year's Open and Regionals.
  • Using these predictions, you enter the contest by placing "wagers" on three male athletes and three female athletes. Each person entering the contest will get 20 points with which to make these wagers. Your result in the contest is based on how much your wagers end up paying off.
  • The payoff for each wager is based on my predictions. For instance, last year I gave Rich Froning a 59% chance of winning. If you wagered 5 points on Froning to win, you would receive 5/0.59 = 8.47 points for that pick. If you wagered 5 points on Jason Khalipa to win, you would receive 0 points since he did not win.
  • You must make exactly 6 wagers:
    • One male, one female to win
    • One male, one female to place top 3
    • One male, one female to place top 10
  • You may spread your 20 points among these 6 wagers in any way you choose. The wagers must be in whole point increments and you must wager at least 1 point on each pick.
As an example, let's pretend I was entering this contest last year. I decide to wager as follows:
  • 5 points Rich Froning to win (59%)
  • 3 points Jason Khalipa to place top 3 (34%)
  • 3 points Lucas Parker to place top 10 (27%)
  • 4 points Sam Briggs to win (32%)
  • 4 points Camille Leblanc-Bazinet to place top 3 (26%)
  • 1 points Alessandra Pichelli place top 10 (24%)
I would have made 8.47 on Froning, 8.82 on Khalipa, 0 on Parker, 12.50 on Briggs, 0 on Leblanc-Bazine and 4.17 on Pichelli. In total, I'd have 33.96 points (this would be 13.96 in profit). My guess is that would have been a pretty good effort.

There is no entry fee. The prize? Glory. Lots of glory. If this works out well this year, maybe I'll figure out a way to actually give something tangible away next year.

So be on the lookout for my predictions coming in the next couple weeks. After the predictions come out, post your wagers to the comments on THIS POST. I'll try to provide updates after each day of the Games regarding the current standings. Have fun everyone!

[UPDATE 7/1: Predictions are below and the contest is now open. These predictions are final, with the following exceptions:

  • If an athlete withdraws prior to the first event, all other athletes' chances will be adjusted upward to relect the loss of that athlete. I'll repost the predictions as soon as I can.
  • If an extra athlete gets a wild card before the Games, I will be forced to re-run all the predictions. I won't change the methodology, so you can expect the chances for most athletes to remain similar.
In the event that I do have to change the predictions for the reasons above, all wagers will be against the revised picks. You can change your own picks anytime up until the start of the first event, for any reason.

These predictions are rounded to the nearest 0.1%, but I will use the true value when calculating the payoffs. Any athletes that truly have odds of 0.0% will be given a payoff of 5,000-to-1.

OK, with that, below are the picks. For methodology details, please see this post.]

[UPDATE 7/8: HQ just announced they will be paying out prize money for the top 20 finishers, but anywhere you see the term "money" in this post, it refers to top 10.  I have re-posted these charts with the heading changed to say "Top 10", but I will not be re-doing the predictions to give odds for finishing top 20.]


31 comments:

  1. Here is the winning bet:
    2 points Rich Froning to win
    5 points Scott Panchik to place top 3
    3 points Alex Nettey to place top 10
    4 points Julie Foucher to win
    2 points Talayna Fortunado to place top 3
    4 points Michelle Kinney place top 10

    ReplyDelete
  2. I like this format. I will try to take advantage of potential biases in your analysis...
    Here are my picks:
    3 points Rich Froning to win
    1 point Ben Smith to place top 3
    1 point Dan Bailey to place top 10
    1 point Julie Foucher to win
    1 point Annie Thorisdottir to place top 3
    13 points Alessandra Pichelli to place top 10

    ReplyDelete
  3. 1 on Rich Froning to win
    1 on Scott Panchik to podium
    6 on Tommy Hackenbruck to money

    3 on Julie Foucher to win
    3 on Kara Webb to podium
    6 on Valerie Voboril to money

    ReplyDelete
  4. Easy Money!

    3 points Rich Froning to win
    2 points Neal Maddox to place top 3
    5 points Tommy Hackenbruck to place top 10
    2 points Camille Leblanc-Bazinet to win
    3 points Julie Foucher to place top 3
    5 points Valerie Voboril to place top 10

    ReplyDelete
  5. 5 - Rich Froning Win
    3 - Scott Panchik Podium
    2 - Matt Fraser Money

    6 - Julie Foucher Win
    2 - Camille Bazinet Podium
    2 - Kara Webb Money

    ReplyDelete
  6. 1 - Rich Froning Win
    1 - Lucas Parker Podium
    1 - Tommy Hackenbruck Money

    15 - Julie Foucher Win
    1 - Elisabeth Akinwale Podium
    1 - Jenn Jones Money

    ReplyDelete
  7. 15 - Rich Froning Win
    1 - Ben Smith Top 3
    1 - Dan Bailey Top 10

    1 - Julie Foucher Win
    1 - Camille Top 3
    1 - Voboril Top 10

    ReplyDelete
  8. 1- Julie Foucher -Win
    1- Camille Bazinet - top 3
    6- Lauren Fisher - top 10
    4 - Rich Froning - win
    3 - Matt Fraser - top 3
    5 - Ben Smith - top 10

    What fun!

    ReplyDelete
  9. Do you need to pick 6 different athletes or can you repeat?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hmm... I suppose I didn't specify, so you can repeat.

      Thanks!

      Delete
  10. 1 - Scott Panchik Win
    3 - Josh Bridges Podium
    5 - Kenneth Leverich Top 10

    1 - Annie Thorisdottir Win
    7 - Julie Foucher Podium
    3 - Anna Tunnicliffe Top 10

    ReplyDelete
  11. Thank you for setting this up!
    My picks are:
    1-josh bridges win
    3-Scott panchik top 3
    3-Lucas Parker top 10

    7-julie foucher win
    4-akinwale top 3
    2-Danae brown top 10

    ReplyDelete
  12. 2-Rich Froning to win
    3 Bridges top 3
    5-Kahlipa top 10

    2-Julie Foucher win
    3- Annie Thorisdottir top 3
    5-Elisabeth Akinwale

    ReplyDelete
  13. 5 - Froning to win
    3 - Leverich to finish top 3
    2 - Mathew Fraser to finish top 10

    5 - Camile to win
    3 - Foucher to place top 3
    2 - Lauren Fisher to place top 10

    ReplyDelete
  14. 5-Rich Froning to win
    2-Mat Fraser top 3
    5-Lucas Parker top 10

    2-Camile to win
    5-Julie top 3
    1-Kara Webb top 10

    ReplyDelete
  15. 3 - Froning to win
    3 - Panchik top 3
    3 - Lucas Parker top 10
    3 - Foucher to win
    3 - Camille Leblanc Bazinet top 3
    5 - Bjork Odinsdottir top 10

    ReplyDelete
  16. 2 - Camille to win
    5 - Kara Webb top 3
    3 - Nicole Holcomb top 10

    2 - Froning to win
    4 - Ben Smith top 3
    4 - Lucas Parker top 10

    ReplyDelete
  17. Thanks for setting it up, interesting format for sure!
    Not sure what I'm doing but here goes:

    4 - win, Julie Foucher
    4 - top 3, Camille Leblanc-Bazinet
    2 - top 10, Nicole Holcomb

    5 - win, Rich Froning
    3 - top 3, Ben Smith
    2 - Top 10, James Hobart

    ReplyDelete
  18. 2 - Rich to win
    4 - Panchik top 3
    4 - Bailey top 10

    2 - Leblanc-Bazinet to win
    4 - Thorisdottir top 3
    4 - Foucher top 10

    ReplyDelete
  19. 2 - win, Julie Foucher
    4 - top 3, Camille Leblanc-Bazinet
    4 - top 10, Annie Thorisdottir

    4 - win, Rich Froning
    4 - top 3, Kenneth Leverich
    2 - top 10, Eric Carmody

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. men's points should be:

      1 - win, Rich Froning
      3 - top 3, Kenneth Leverich
      6 - top 10, Eric Carmody

      Delete
  20. 2 -Fortunato win
    2 -Thorisdottir podium
    10 -Pichelli money

    2 -Ohlsen win
    2 -Ohlsen podium
    2- Ohlsen money

    ReplyDelete
  21. 3 - Foucher to win
    3 - Voboril to podium
    4 - Pichelli top 10

    3 - Froning to win
    3 - Panchik to podium
    4 - Hackenbruk top 10

    ReplyDelete
  22. 3 - Foucher to win
    3 - Voboril to podium
    4 - Pichelli top 10

    3 - Froning to win
    3 - Panchik to podium
    4 - Hackenbruk top 10

    ReplyDelete
  23. 9 - Foucher to win
    7 - Thorisdottir to podium
    1 - Holte top 10

    1 - Fronning to win
    1 - Panchik to podium
    1 - Maddox top 10

    ReplyDelete
  24. 5 - Foucher to win
    2 - Thorisdottir to podium
    2 - Leblanc-Bazinet top 10

    5 - Froning to win
    3 - Smith to podium
    3 - Fraser top 10

    ReplyDelete
  25. 3 - Foucher to win
    3 - Voboril to podium
    4 - Voight top 10

    3 - Froning to win
    3 - Bridges to podium
    4 - Leverich top 10

    ReplyDelete
  26. Foucher to win
    Camille to podium
    Thorisdottir top 10

    Froning to win
    Panchik to podium
    Fraser top 10

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You need to enter a number of points to wager on each athlete.

      Delete
    2. Ooops sorry! - hopefully it's not too late. You're doing an awesome job with this by the way Anders!

      2-Foucher to win
      6-Camille to podium
      2-Thorisdottir top 10

      1-Froning to win
      2-Panchik to podium
      7-Fraser top 10

      Delete
  27. 3-Julie Foucher to win
    3-Karen Webb top 3
    4-Rebecca Voigt top 10

    3-Scott Panchik to win
    3-Jason Khalipa top 3
    4-Kenneth Leverich top 10

    ReplyDelete