Introducing the CFG Analysis 2014 Games Pick 'Em - NOW OPEN

I've toyed with the idea of putting together some sort of CrossFit Games pool or contest for the past couple of years, but a couple of things held me back.  One, I wasn't sure if there was enough interest and enough readership here to support it; and two, I really didn't know how a CrossFit Games pool should work.

Given the pretty decent volume of responses we got for the SWAG's during this years' Open, I think (hope?) there is enough interest to do something more formal for the Games this year. So we're going to try and see what happens.

But how will it work? Well, since the CrossFit Games are unlike most sports where you see pools or pick 'em contests (NCAA basketball, college football bowls, World Cup), the set-up of this contest will be decidedly different as well. It will also give me a chance to put some of the analysis I've been doing here to use. So here's the set-up:

• Around the beginning of July, I will release my predictions for this year's CrossFit Games. These predictions, like last year, will contain the expected chance of each individual athlete winning, placing top 3 and placing top 10. These predictions are based almost entirely on the results from this year's Open and Regionals.
• Using these predictions, you enter the contest by placing "wagers" on three male athletes and three female athletes. Each person entering the contest will get 20 points with which to make these wagers. Your result in the contest is based on how much your wagers end up paying off.
• The payoff for each wager is based on my predictions. For instance, last year I gave Rich Froning a 59% chance of winning. If you wagered 5 points on Froning to win, you would receive 5/0.59 = 8.47 points for that pick. If you wagered 5 points on Jason Khalipa to win, you would receive 0 points since he did not win.
• You must make exactly 6 wagers:
• One male, one female to win
• One male, one female to place top 3
• One male, one female to place top 10
• You may spread your 20 points among these 6 wagers in any way you choose. The wagers must be in whole point increments and you must wager at least 1 point on each pick.

As an example, let's pretend I was entering this contest last year. I decide to wager as follows:

• 5 points Rich Froning to win (59%)
• 3 points Jason Khalipa to place top 3 (34%)
• 3 points Lucas Parker to place top 10 (27%)
• 4 points Sam Briggs to win (32%)
• 4 points Camille Leblanc-Bazinet to place top 3 (26%)
• 1 points Alessandra Pichelli place top 10 (24%)

I would have made 8.47 on Froning, 8.82 on Khalipa, 0 on Parker, 12.50 on Briggs, 0 on Leblanc-Bazine and 4.17 on Pichelli. In total, I'd have 33.96 points (this would be 13.96 in profit). My guess is that would have been a pretty good effort.

There is no entry fee. The prize? Glory. Lots of glory. If this works out well this year, maybe I'll figure out a way to actually give something tangible away next year.

So be on the lookout for my predictions coming in the next couple weeks. After the predictions come out, post your wagers to the comments on THIS POST. I'll try to provide updates after each day of the Games regarding the current standings. Have fun everyone!

[UPDATE 7/1: Predictions are below and the contest is now open. These predictions are final, with the following exceptions:

• If an athlete withdraws prior to the first event, all other athletes' chances will be adjusted upward to relect the loss of that athlete. I'll repost the predictions as soon as I can.
• If an extra athlete gets a wild card before the Games, I will be forced to re-run all the predictions. I won't change the methodology, so you can expect the chances for most athletes to remain similar.

In the event that I do have to change the predictions for the reasons above, all wagers will be against the revised picks. You can change your own picks anytime up until the start of the first event, for any reason.

These predictions are rounded to the nearest 0.1%, but I will use the true value when calculating the payoffs. Any athletes that truly have odds of 0.0% will be given a payoff of 5,000-to-1.

OK, with that, below are the picks. For methodology details, please see this post.]

[UPDATE 7/8: HQ just announced they will be paying out prize money for the top 20 finishers, but anywhere you see the term "money" in this post, it refers to top 10.  I have re-posted these charts with the heading changed to say "Top 10", but I will not be re-doing the predictions to give odds for finishing top 20.]