- These picks are based almost entirely off the results from this season, and thus the order will be similar (but not identical) to the Cross Regional Comparison found at http://crossfitregionalshowdown.com/leaderboard/men.
- There are some Games veterans, like Matt Chan for instance, whose odds probably look lower than some would expect. That's because last year's Games played only a very minor role in these projections. Although there are some athletes for whom we could probably make an exception, I think that in general, the results from Regionals this season are the best predictors of what will happen at the Games this season. Regionals are competitive enough now that I doubt many athletes were holding much back.
- For full methodology, see the previous post. The general idea is to use the results from the events that have occurred this season and simulate Games events that would be similar to them.
- These are rounded to the nearest 1%, so some athletes listed with a 0% chance actually may have non-zero chance according to the model, but that chance is less than 0.5%. For instance, virtually everyone had a non-zero chance of finishing in the top 10. The list is sorted by chance of winning, prior to rounding, and in case of ties, it is sorted by average finish.
- This is all in good fun, so don't take it too seriously if your favorite athlete doesn't appear as highly as you'd like. I'm well aware that this model isn't perfect, but my goal is to make the best predictions I can with the data we have available. There's plenty going on behind the scenes for each of these athletes and plenty of other variables that I simply can't capture.
- I'm curious to hear who you guys are picking this year. I think it should be a blast to see how things play out given the level of competition we've already seen this season. Post to comments or shoot me an email to let me know your take.
OK, without further ado, here are the picks. For each athlete, I have the estimated chance of him/her winning, placing in the top 3 (podium) and placing in the top 10 (money), along with the average ranking he/she attained across all simulations.