The 2014 Open season is finally here, folks. That means another chance to test your fitness against 70,000 men and 40,000 women (and counting). But perhaps more importantly, it means another chance to test your ability to make modestly substantiated, vaguely scientific predictions about what each Open workout will be!
Welcome to Fun with SWAGs, 2014 Edition (SWAG: Scientific Wild-Ass Guess).
Today's prediction for 14.1 will be less SWAG, more WAG, since every movement is still on the table and we can't really rule much of anything out. However, that doesn't mean we can't narrow things down at all.
First, let's limit the movements to those that have been programmed in the Open in the last three years. Considering no new movements were added to the Open programming in 2012 or 2013, I think it's a pretty fair assumption that no new ones will be added this year. In any case, it's good enough for a SWAG.
Next, consider that either burpees or snatches (or both) have come up in the first Open workout in each of the past three years. Not coincidentally, these are also the two most heavily-programmed movements across the three Opens. So let's assume at least one will come up in 14.1.
How about time domain? Well, broadly, we can assume it will be between 4 and 20 minutes (the min and max of all Open workouts historically). Beyond that, I'm not sure we can narrow it down a whole lot, since the first Open workout has been 10, 7 and 17 minutes in 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively. But since we need to make a specific guess, I'll assume that they back off the 17 minutes from last year and put this one in the 10-12 minute range.
Now, let's start to put something together. I do not think they will repeat 13.1, since that was basically a combination of two prior Open workouts already (12.1 and 12.2). I think there will be a repeat workout this year, but I believe it will be 13.4 (cleans and jerks and toes to bar). That one doesn't satisfy my criteria of having burpees or snatches, so that leads me to believe 14.1 will be brand new. I'll also go ahead and assume it will not have both snatches and burpees this time, but I do believe it will be a couplet. I think the weight will be light-to-moderate, in order to attract as many entrants as possible in the final few days.
OK, with all that said, it's time to make a pick. My SWAG for 14.1 is:
AMRAP 10 of 20 burpees (bar-facing), 20 deadlifts (155/105)
Think you have a better idea? Post your SWAG to comments. Enjoy the Open everyone!