As for this week, things should be pretty straightforward with just a few movements left on the table. With that in mind, a few quick thoughts before we get to the pick:
- I've really enjoyed the programming so far this season. Aside from this past week, it has not been in my favor, but still, I like that they have been willing to get creative and take some chances with the programming. They've also avoided any judging disasters like they had last season with 13.2.
- Having the video requirement for regional qualifiers seems to have increased the number of videos available for top athletes. This has been nice to see, as it's highlighted how completely legit most of the top athletes are. When I watch a video of a Games-level athlete, the reps are all crystal clear and the range of motion leaves no doubt (except in the head-to-head Open announcement WODs, which seem to have had some questionable reps, in my opinion).
- I have to say, I'm not sure why HQ felt they needed to add a row this year. In any other setting, I would have no problem with this, but if they really want the Open to be "the most egalitarian sport in the world," requiring the use of a $1,000 piece of equipment doesn't really make sense. Sure, this only impacts 0.1% of the athletes in the Open, but really, was it necessary?
- I'll have more on this later this week, but at first glance, it appears that my method for mid-week projections worked fairly well last week. Many thanks to Andrew Havko for pulling the data for me at several points this weekend, and thanks to the several others who offered up their services for helping me pull the data.
OK, let's get down to brass tacks. We all know what's left on the table for 14.5: burpees and thrusters. Yes, jerks are left as well, but I don't see them skipping burpees or thrusters, and I doubt they'll put jerks in a workout that already has thrusters. So I'm going to assume it's a couplet of burpees and thrusters.
Weight-wise, I think this needs to be relatively heavy, considering the LBEL and average weight load are still below their historical averages. As far as the time domain, I think they'll keep it short. We have been hovering around 10 minutes throughout the Open, but considering last week was 14 minutes and we're likely to have only two movements this week, I can't see them going long for 14.5.
Bearing all that in mind, let's get to it. My SWAG for 14.5 is:
AMRAP 7 of 3 bar-facing burpees, 3 thrusters (115/75), 6 bar-facing burpees, 6 thrusters, 9 bar-facing burpees, 9 thrusters, ...
I hate putting down something that looks so familiar, but we've seen that 7-minute, 3-6-9-... pattern in each of the past three Opens, so I feel like I had to go with it again this year. I figure the 115/75 thrusters are a bit of a diversion from prior years where it has typically been 100/65, but yeah, this one is kinda dull. Let's hope Castro proves me wrong.
Post SWAGs to comments, and good luck to everyone on 14.5!