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Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Fun with SWAGs: What Will 14.4 Be?

For 14.1, I whiffed on the movements but at least got the time frame right. For 14.2, I did manage to call the overhead squats but basically missed on everything else. Last week? I pretty much got no part of 14.3.

But this week? THIS IS IT. I can feel it.

Obviously, things should be getting easier for us, since fewer movements are left on the table. Here is what we have left, in order of emphasis in past years: burpees, thrusters, jerks, toes-to-bar, cleans, muscle-ups, wall balls and push-ups. Of those, I'd expect them all to come up at some point, with the exception of push-ups. So that means we probably have a triplet coming up, or possibly even a workout with 4 or more movements, which has never occurred in the Open before.

You may have also noticed that the complexity has increased each week so far, along with the weight level. In fact, the last two weeks have been among the most unique workouts in the four years of the Open. My theory is that this trend will continue this week before HQ releases something simple and classic to close things out on 14.5. So I'm going to leave a couple classic movements on the table for 14.5: burpees and thrusters.

I also feel like they need to go long this week, since they really haven't gone beyond 10 minutes for all intents and purposes so far (on 14.2, the athletes lasting beyond 10 minutes probably were cruising for the first 3 or 6 minutes). Weight-wise, this could go either way, since the LBEL is very close to the historic average at this point. So for 14.4, I'm thinking something long and funky, with a bunch of movements.

With that all in mind, here's what I got for 14.4:

AMRAP 15 of 60 toes-to-bar, 60 wall balls, 30 clean and jerks (135/95), 30 muscle-ups

I wouldn't waste your time with your own pick. I just nailed it. Sorry, I know you wish you had thought of it first. Post congratulatory remarks to comments.


  1. Wow! That is a pretty legit SWAG. I think you might be on to something. Just in case you overlooked something, here's my SWAG
    17 minute AMRAP
    50 wall balls
    40 bar facing burpees
    30 toes-to-bar
    20 thrusters at 135 lbs
    10 muscle ups

  2. Congrats! On the slim chance you're wrong, I'll take a shot.

    15:00 AMRAP
    75 Bar-facing Burpees
    50 Thrusters (115/85)
    25 Muscle-ups

  3. That's a sneaky workout Anders, there's a lot of fast bodyweight met-con guys who would get through the toes-to-bars and wall balls quickly, but putting Grace in front of the muscle-ups would be a big obstacle for them before they can showcase their muscle-up skills.

    AMRAP 20min

    24 wall balls
    12 over-the-bar burpees
    6 thrusters 115/75lb
    3 muscle-up

    14.5 / 13.4
    AMRAP 7

    clean and jerk 135/95lb

  4. AMRAP 15
    30 wall balls 20/14 @ 10/9
    15 power cleans 155/105
    5 muscle ups

  5. AMRAP 11
    50 wall ball
    25 clean and jerk (115/75)
    50 wall ball
    25 clean and jerk (135/95)
    and continue sequence with clean and jerks increasing by 20 lbs each round

  6. Castro's video last night made me think you were onto something......

    A long chipper like that would mean there would be a lot of toes to bar though which would be terrible for me, so here's my selfish prediction:

    15 min AMRAP
    15 wall balls
    12 power cleans 115/75
    9 toes to bar

    1. Agreed, Castro's video did make me more confident. However, you can never rule out the possibility that HQ put that out just to screw with people. Never rule that out...

    2. I should at least get a participation ribbon for guessing three of the five movements....haha

  7. 14 minute AMRAP
    50 bar-facing burpees
    40 S2OH 125#
    30 T2B
    20 Bar MUs

    Also - Anders - Any chance you can do something or possibly write about the potential for teams outside of the Top 30 to make it given the potential for individuals' scores to be removed? Not sure if this is possible given the format of the team leaderboard, but was just wondering if there was anything you could do.


  8. Nice guess! You came very close on this one.

  9. I think that's about as close as anyone could possibly get to this WOD....nailed it!