Fun With SWAGs: What Will 15.5 Be?

As I mentioned on Twitter last Friday, there will be no podcast this week.  I'm out of town, but for good reason: I'm attending the SOA's Fellowship Admissions Course, which means I'll basically be "graduating" after years of taking actuarial exams.  I'll be coming home with a few new letters after my name, which is pretty cool.

So no podcast, but that means you get more actual, written words from me - just like in ye olden days, back before I was podcasting and tweeting and listening to all that hippety-hop. Before we get to the SWAG, here's a collection of thoughts about 15.4 and the Open so far:

• If it wasn't already clear, it should be clear now that HQ does not intend the Rx division to be for the masses.  They want the everyday CrossFitter to use that scaled division and aspire to make it to the Rx division.  I think by next year, people will come into the Open with this mindset, but I'm sure it was difficult for a lot of folks to accept that they'll need to scale workouts this year.  But it's just about modifying your perspective, in my opinion.  The Open was always too heavy, too hard, too skilled for a lot of CrossFitters.  Now they've just made the Rx division an even higher bar to attain, but they've left the scaled division there for the masses.  The scaled division is now even more inclusive than the older Opens, so my guess is that in the future, more and more people will scale, and we'll see the Rx division be a smaller subset of the total field than it is now.
• I liked the movement choices for 15.4 (although they went against my SWAG, of course), but Occam's Razor would say "What the hell are you doing with that rep scheme?"  Would anyone have complained if it was 3-3-6-6-9-9-...?  In that case, the heavy cleans would have played more of a role, and in my opinion, that would have been a well-balanced workout.  The way it was written, it was not only confusing, but also seemed quite biased toward the handstand push-ups.  I just don't get this one.
• Rich Froning is going to have a hell of a hard time sitting out of the individual competition this year.  The man can't even let Matt Fraser just have the Open title.  Just watch: Rich will win the final workout, and he will do triple Grace at 315 afterwards and post it on Instagram, just to let you know that he still could win the Games if he wanted to.  And Matt Fraser will come in 2nd on the final workout, and he will win the Open, and it will still be damn impressive.
• How did Annie Thorisdottir sneak back up into 2nd place on the women's side?  Top 11 on the past three workouts?  Looking at the leaderboard right now, I think it's safe to say the women's side is going to be crazy-competitive at the Games this year.

Enough about the past, let's move on to 15.5.  The Rx division of the Open this year is shaping up to be the heaviest (based on LBEL and average relative load) of all-time, by far.  It's actually on par, right now, with what we typically see at Regionals.  Normally I'd say this implies we'll get something lighter in 15.5, but I doubt that's the case this year.  We've seen a progression so far in 2015 of the workouts getting more and more challenging each week, and I think that continues in 15.5.  I also think this workout will be for-time, and I think they'll make use of most of the movements that have showed up in the past but not this year (burpee, thruster, box jump, row, push-up).

With that in mind, I am going to defer to my wife, who came up with this pick last night.  It has everything I was planning to throw in, and if it ain't broke, why fix it?

3 rounds for time of row 500 meters, 21 burpee-box jumps (24"/20"), 12 thrusters (135/95)

As always, post SWAGs to comments, and enjoy the final workout (or workouts?) of the 2015 Open!

Fun With SWAGs: What Will 15.4 Be?

Last week's SWAG was another half-way decent one that at least got the time domain close (15 minutes vs. 14 minutes) and got one movement right (wall balls), but it wasn't exactly spot-on.  I certainly didn't predict that muscle-ups would appear first in 15.3, but as you'll hear on the podcast below, this wasn't something that came completely out of nowhere.

This week I double-down on an earlier pick, because it just seems too good to pass up this week, but I promise I won't make this pick again if it fails me again.  I've got to believe this week will be short, intense, and I don't think we're quite ready to repeat any movements that have shown up yet.  With that in mind, the official CFG Analysis SWAG for 15.3 (Rx'd division) is:

AMRAP 7 of burpee-box jumps (30"/24")

Remember to check out the podcast for as John Nail and I discuss 15.3, the controversy surrounding muscle-ups appearing as the first movement in an Open workout, how annoyingly hard single-unders can be, and of course, our picks for 15.4.

Please post SWAGs to comment.  Even with so many movements off the table, it will still be quite the accomplishment to get 15.4 or 15.5, especially with HQ showing that the game has changed this year.

Also, be on the lookout this week for a short post later this week looking into how the effect of the 15.3 muscle-ups on the number of Rx vs. scaled athletes, and how it compares to past Open workouts in terms of thinning out the field.

Fun With SWAGs: What Will 15.3 Be?

Well I would have liked to pat myself on the back for having a relatively decent pick last week (it was a repeat, and it did include overhead squats), but since two of our readers got 15.2 exactly right, I guess I'm not so smart after all.  Congrats again to JesseM (via comments section) and Kelcey Lehrich (via Twitter) for calling 15.2.

But enough about those guys.  This is my week for glory.  The Open really hasn't brought the pain yet, and I think this is the week HQ puts a beatdown on the community.  Among Rx athletes, only about 14% of males and about 5% of females made it beyond the round of 14s this year*, so that means the vast majority of the field hasn't had a metcon that lasted longer than 9 minutes yet.  And I think the first two metcons have been more about strategy and avoiding muscle fatigue, and less about engine.  I think that changes this week.

The official CFG Analysis SWAG for 15.3 (Rx'd division) is:

AMRAP 15 of 15 row calories, 30 wall balls (20-lb. to 10'/14-lb. to 9')

Remember to check out the podcast for chatter with John Nail about 15.2 and more details about why our predictions for 15.3 are bound to come true.  Plus we've got a short interview with soothsayer Kelcey Lehrich, he of the correct 15.2 prediction.

Please post SWAGs to comment.  With another repeat workout (likely) off the table, a correct pick this week will be a true accomplishment (still no beer on the line, but perhaps we can work something else out).


*Last year, those percentages were 10% for men and 3% for women.  So it appears the community is improving, although some of that could be influenced by athletes shifting to the scaled division this year.  We'll look more into how continuing athletes improved in my Open review in a month or so.

Fun with SWAGs: What Will 15.2 Be?

So we weren't exactly close last week.  I got almost no elements correct about 15.1 (including the fact that it was actually two workouts), although I will give myself a big pat on the back for correctly guessing that it would not be a repeat.  That was brilliant on my part.

Anyway, that's not going to stop me from making a bold pick about 15.2 (it certainly never has in the past).  For all the gory details about how I came up with this pick (along with all the latest on Kim Jong Un's brief stay at the top of the Open leaderboard and other 15.1-related chatter), listen to the podcast below or download it on iTunes.

The official CFG Analysis SWAG for 15.2 (Rx'd division) is:

AMRAP 10 of 60 bar-facing burpees, 30 overhead squats (120/90), 10 muscle-ups (i.e. repeat of Open 11.4)
[Update 3/5 - Fixed the women's weights on this workout to match 2011 exactly.  Thanks to kentyman for the catch.]

Please post SWAGs to comment so that you'll be able to gloat later in the event that your guess is actually not way off.  No beer on the line this week, unfortunately.

[Update 3/6 - Congratulations to JesseM (via comments section) and Kelcey Lehrich (via Twitter) for successfully predicting 15.2!  And thank goodness I did not promise beer this week...]

Fun with SWAGs: What Will 15.1 Be?

It's officially 2015 Open season, everyone, and that means one thing: making highly unlikely yet completely overconfident predictions about what the workouts will be.  This year we'll be unveiling the SWAG each week on the site, but the explanation of my thought process will be in the podcast for those who are interested (which should be all of you!).  My buddy and frequent commenter John Nail will join me each week on the podcast as we break down the prior week's workout and look ahead to what might be to come.

So without further ado, the official CFG Analysis SWAG for 15.1 (Rx'd division) is:

AMRAP 7 of burpee-box jumps (30"/24")

I encourage everyone to post your SWAGs to comments, since odds are you'll do better than me.

[NOTE 2/19/2015: I re-uploaded the podcast last night with the tracks mixed more evenly, so hopefully this fixes the issue that some listeners had with the original.]

Fun with SWAGs: What Will 14.5 Be?

See? I told you. I knew last week was the week. For the first time in 8 tries (dating back to last year), I put up a SWAG that was pretty close to spot-on. Sure, I missed the row (who saw that coming?), but the combination of wall ball, toes-to-bar, 135/95 cleans and muscle-ups was pretty much spot-on. Will it ever happen again? Eh, probably not.

As for this week, things should be pretty straightforward with just a few movements left on the table. With that in mind, a few quick thoughts before we get to the pick:

• I've really enjoyed the programming so far this season.  Aside from this past week, it has not been in my favor, but still, I like that they have been willing to get creative and take some chances with the programming. They've also avoided any judging disasters like they had last season with 13.2.
• Having the video requirement for regional qualifiers seems to have increased the number of videos available for top athletes. This has been nice to see, as it's highlighted how completely legit most of the top athletes are. When I watch a video of a Games-level athlete, the reps are all crystal clear and the range of motion leaves no doubt (except in the head-to-head Open announcement WODs, which seem to have had some questionable reps, in my opinion).
• I have to say, I'm not sure why HQ felt they needed to add a row this year. In any other setting, I would have no problem with this, but if they really want the Open to be "the most egalitarian sport in the world," requiring the use of a $1,000 piece of equipment doesn't really make sense. Sure, this only impacts 0.1% of the athletes in the Open, but really, was it necessary?
• I'll have more on this later this week, but at first glance, it appears that my method for mid-week projections worked fairly well last week. Many thanks to Andrew Havko for pulling the data for me at several points this weekend, and thanks to the several others who offered up their services for helping me pull the data.

OK, let's get down to brass tacks. We all know what's left on the table for 14.5: burpees and thrusters. Yes, jerks are left as well, but I don't see them skipping burpees or thrusters, and I doubt they'll put jerks in a workout that already has thrusters. So I'm going to assume it's a couplet of burpees and thrusters.

Weight-wise, I think this needs to be relatively heavy, considering the LBEL and average weight load are still below their historical averages. As far as the time domain, I think they'll keep it short. We have been hovering around 10 minutes throughout the Open, but considering last week was 14 minutes and we're likely to have only two movements this week, I can't see them going long for 14.5.

Bearing all that in mind, let's get to it. My SWAG for 14.5 is:

AMRAP 7 of 3 bar-facing burpees, 3 thrusters (115/75), 6 bar-facing burpees, 6 thrusters, 9 bar-facing burpees, 9 thrusters, ...

I hate putting down something that looks so familiar, but we've seen that 7-minute, 3-6-9-... pattern in each of the past three Opens, so I feel like I had to go with it again this year. I figure the 115/75 thrusters are a bit of a diversion from prior years where it has typically been 100/65, but yeah, this one is kinda dull. Let's hope Castro proves me wrong.

Post SWAGs to comments, and good luck to everyone on 14.5!

Fun with SWAGs: What Will 14.4 Be?

For 14.1, I whiffed on the movements but at least got the time frame right. For 14.2, I did manage to call the overhead squats but basically missed on everything else. Last week? I pretty much got no part of 14.3.

But this week? THIS IS IT. I can feel it.

Obviously, things should be getting easier for us, since fewer movements are left on the table. Here is what we have left, in order of emphasis in past years: burpees, thrusters, jerks, toes-to-bar, cleans, muscle-ups, wall balls and push-ups. Of those, I'd expect them all to come up at some point, with the exception of push-ups. So that means we probably have a triplet coming up, or possibly even a workout with 4 or more movements, which has never occurred in the Open before.

You may have also noticed that the complexity has increased each week so far, along with the weight level. In fact, the last two weeks have been among the most unique workouts in the four years of the Open. My theory is that this trend will continue this week before HQ releases something simple and classic to close things out on 14.5. So I'm going to leave a couple classic movements on the table for 14.5: burpees and thrusters.

I also feel like they need to go long this week, since they really haven't gone beyond 10 minutes for all intents and purposes so far (on 14.2, the athletes lasting beyond 10 minutes probably were cruising for the first 3 or 6 minutes). Weight-wise, this could go either way, since the LBEL is very close to the historic average at this point. So for 14.4, I'm thinking something long and funky, with a bunch of movements.

With that all in mind, here's what I got for 14.4:

AMRAP 15 of 60 toes-to-bar, 60 wall balls, 30 clean and jerks (135/95), 30 muscle-ups

I wouldn't waste your time with your own pick. I just nailed it. Sorry, I know you wish you had thought of it first. Post congratulatory remarks to comments.

Fun with SWAGs: What Will 14.3 Be? (And More)

Before we get SWAG-y, I'd like to get some quick thoughts out about 14.2 and also give you the results of an interesting little study I did last week.

Without further ado, a few thoughts on 14.2:

• Really cool to see a new WOD format for the Open.  We all know the Open has typically been filled with very basic, classic CrossFit WODs, so it was refreshing to see a workout like this come out. I think it took us all a couple of days to figure out the right strategy for this one.
• Personally, I would have liked to see the overhead squats either progress in weight or start a little bit higher. For the top-tier athletes, this was pretty much all about the chest-to-bar pull-ups. When Castro announced that the rounds would change in each 3:00 segment, I was really hoping to hear him say the weights would increase. But still... cool workout.
• Good to see that they set the breakpoints such that more athletes were able to get past the first round, unlike 13.5. Based on a really quick look, it looks like about 70% of the men reached the second round and about 30% of the women reached the second round.
• Looks like we saw quite a few people drop out in week 2. About 15% of the men and 15% of the women dropped out. That was a bigger percentage drop than we saw in any week last year, except for the women between 13.3 and 13.4 (19%). [UPDATE 4/12/2014 - This previously said the largest drop was between women's 13.2 and 13.3. That was a typo.] 

Also last week, I decided to try something new. I picked out two athletes who submitted scores by 9 a.m. on Friday morning, and each 12 hours after that, I tracked their progress on the leaderboard. My goal was to understand how the ranking of a particular score will evolve over the course of the weekend. Obviously an athlete's position would continue to get worse, but would his or her rank decrease (or increase) as a percentage of the field? If not, then an athlete could quickly get a sense of where his or her score might end up simply by checking out the percentile rank early on.

So let's see what happened. These athletes each were ranked in the 90th percentile at the start of the weekend, and I tracked the rank of the score, not necessarily the athlete. If the athlete retried the workout, their new score did not count towards this study.

Looking worldwide, we can see that in fact, the athlete's percentile stayed relatively stable. The men's percentile improved slightly, which I think is actually more typical. The women's score I picked was 87 (one rep away from finishing the 12's), and I suspect that a lot of women worked just hard enough to get that past hump on their second try.

Quickly, let's take a look at the progression in the region, which is generally more important for most of us.

Here we see that the athletes actually started at a lower (worse) percentile in the region. In the North American regions, this is probably common, since the only people performing the workouts that early on are generally strong athletes. In the rest of the world, those scores early on could come in normal Friday classes. But by 9 p.m. Friday, the athlete's percentile was pretty indicative of how things would finish up.

Anyway... on to the SWAG. Briefly, here is what we know:

• The movements left on the table (in order of how much emphasis has been placed on them in the past three years): burpee, thruster, jerk, toes-to-bar, box jump, muscle-up, wall ball, clean, deadlift, push-up.
• The LBEL so far is 0.38 for men and 0.27 for women. That's fairly close to the historical average for women (0.30), but below the historical average for men (0.46). So I think it's likely that things will get a bit heavier over the final three workouts than they have been to this point. That may or may not be true for 14.3 specifically, though.
• Neither workout so far has been particularly long. 14.1 was 10:00, and 14.2 had at most 9:00 of challenging work for any particular athlete, when you consider that the early rounds were nothing more than a warm-up for the top athletes.
• The first two workouts have been couplets. In 2011, there were three triplets, and in 2012 and 2013 there were two triplets each, so I think it's fair to assume we're getting a triplet soon. There were no single-modality workouts in 2013, and I doubt we'll see one this year.

With that as our framework, here we go with the SWAG for 14.3:

AMRAP 16 of 8 thrusters (115/75), 10 toes-to-bar, 12 bar-facing burpees

Again, you can pretty much take it to the bank that I will be way off. But it's not like you can do better. Of course, if you think you can, post SWAGs to comments. Enjoy 14.3 everyone!

Fun with SWAGs: What Will 14.2 Be?

One week in the books. I don't know about you, but I am once again shocked by the jump in competition from last year. I know personally I feel fitter than ever, but I find myself lower on the leaderboard than in past years (~780 in the Central East). It's tough seeing the top of the leaderboard get further and further away, but it's also reassuring that the sport is headed in the right direction. With 6,500+ men in the competition here in my region, only the absolute best of the best will even make it to Regionals. Marcus Hendren, top 10 in the Games the past two years, is currently outside the top 100 in his own region. This is where we are these days. For the rest of us, there's nothing to do but work hard to keep up.

Anyhow, let's move on. I may not qualify for Regionals, but I still have a chance to fulfill another lifelong dream: correctly predicting an Open workout the week beforehand. Last week, with basically nothing to go on, I wasn't particularly close, except for the 10-minute time domain. But I have a feeling is my week. NOW IS THE TIME.

OK, so let's get started. Let's assume that snatches and double-unders are off the table (even though half of the field probably used clean-and-jerks instead of snatches). Let's go ahead and assume they'll hold thrusters and pull-ups until the end again (although I really hope they don't). I also don't think they'll put cleans or jerks in this week, since they were an option in 14.1. That leaves us with the following movements on the table, in order of how much emphasis was put on them in the past: burpee, toes-to-bar, box jump, muscle-up, wall ball, deadlift, push-up, overhead squat.

Last week was a couplet with relatively light weights, so I'm going to assume this week will be a triplet with considerably heavier weights. As far as the time domain, it could really go either way, but let's go with... long?

Well, unfortunately I haven't really narrowed it down a whole lot. But that's never stopped me from going bold with a prediction before. Here goes:

AMRAP 15 of 10 bar-facing burpees, 10 overhead squats (115/75), 10 toes-to-bar

Zero percent chance that happens, of course. But let's see you try to do better. Post SWAGs to comments, and good luck on 14.2!

Fun with (S)WAGs: What Will 14.1 Be?

The 2014 Open season is finally here, folks. That means another chance to test your fitness against 70,000 men and 40,000 women (and counting). But perhaps more importantly, it means another chance to test your ability to make modestly substantiated, vaguely scientific predictions about what each Open workout will be!

Welcome to Fun with SWAGs, 2014 Edition (SWAG: Scientific Wild-Ass Guess).

Today's prediction for 14.1 will be less SWAG, more WAG, since every movement is still on the table and we can't really rule much of anything out. However, that doesn't mean we can't narrow things down at all.

First, let's limit the movements to those that have been programmed in the Open in the last three years. Considering no new movements were added to the Open programming in 2012 or 2013, I think it's a pretty fair assumption that no new ones will be added this year. In any case, it's good enough for a SWAG.

Next, consider that either burpees or snatches (or both) have come up in the first Open workout in each of the past three years. Not coincidentally, these are also the two most heavily-programmed movements across the three Opens. So let's assume at least one will come up in 14.1.

How about time domain? Well, broadly, we can assume it will be between 4 and 20 minutes (the min and max of all Open workouts historically). Beyond that, I'm not sure we can narrow it down a whole lot, since the first Open workout has been 10, 7 and 17 minutes in 2011, 2012 and 2013 respectively. But since we need to make a specific guess, I'll assume that they back off the 17 minutes from last year and put this one in the 10-12 minute range.

Now, let's start to put something together. I do not think they will repeat 13.1, since that was basically a combination of two prior Open workouts already (12.1 and 12.2). I think there will be a repeat workout this year, but I believe it will be 13.4 (cleans and jerks and toes to bar). That one doesn't satisfy my criteria of having burpees or snatches, so that leads me to believe 14.1 will be brand new. I'll also go ahead and assume it will not have both snatches and burpees this time, but I do believe it will be a couplet. I think the weight will be light-to-moderate, in order to attract as many entrants as possible in the final few days.

OK, with all that said, it's time to make a pick. My SWAG for 14.1 is:

AMRAP 10 of 20 burpees (bar-facing), 20 deadlifts (155/105)

Think you have a better idea? Post your SWAG to comments. Enjoy the Open everyone!

Fun With SWAGs: What Will 13.5 Be?

Welcome back. We're closing in on the end of the third CrossFit Games Open, and I think for the most part, it's been an enjoyable year for me. Without question, HQ has to address the judging issues that have surfaced this year (most notably in 13.2 but also in 13.4 with a big flap over Jason Khalipa's toes-to-bar), but overall I think we've seen an improvement from last year's Open. Participation is way up, the Games site has been running much more smoothly, and in my opinion, the programming has been better.

Let's talk a bit more about the programming. As I've said in the past, I don't think you can afford to program single-modality events in a competition with five events. You're just introducing too much variance into the equation and potentially letting some specialists into the Regionals ahead of more well-rounded competitors. Couplets and triplets simply tell us more about each athlete, and we need to gain a lot of information about these athletes in order to trim the field from 5,000+ down in some cases to only 48. To this point, HQ has not used any single-modality events, and it shows when you look at the standings. The 48th place competitor in the Central East currently has 273 points through 4 events, which is less than the 48th place competitor in that region had through just 3 events last year with half as many athletes. What does this mean? It means that a) my projections for the necessary points to qualify for regionals were way too high; and b) the cream is rising to the top faster. The best athletes are doing relatively well on every event.

Has the programming been perfect? No, I don't think it has. To be sure, 13.2 was a judging disaster, and in my opinion, weighted too heavily toward the box jumps. I liked 13.4, but I think it would have been a more balanced workout with the toes-to-bar first. I also don't think they've gone heavy enough to this point, meaning you may see the standings shake up quite a bit at the regionals when things inevitably jump up in weight.

That being said, I think it's been an improvement over last year. And hindsight is 20/20 on some of this stuff; I'm not claiming that I could have programmed five workouts that would, at the end of the day, been preferable.

Alright, enough chit-chat. Let's get down to the business at hand: making a (not really that wild) guess at 13.5. Anyone who's been paying attention knows two movements that are still on the table: thrusters and pull-ups. I'd be stunned if both these movements don't make an appearance in 13.5, so in my mind, the big questions are:

1) Will they include overhead squats?
2) Will the pull-ups be chest-to-bar?
3) How heavy will they go on the thrusters?
4) What will the time domain be?
5) What will the rep scheme be?

Let's tackle these one at a time. I think it's a toss-up whether overhead squats get used. I think one of the major disappointments last year in the Open was the lack of overhead squats, which is just about the quintessential CrossFit movement. I'd personally be disappointed if they left them out again, but they may not want to mess with the "Fran" concept (thrusters and pull-ups) for the final workout. But since I have to pick one way or the other, I say they include overhead squats.

Next, I think the pull-ups will be chest-to-bar. I was surprised when they did this in 2011, because there are a lot of otherwise fit women who can't do these. But from a judging perspective, they are simply much easier to handle than chin-to-bar. Advantage: chest-to-bar.

Third, I think the weight on the thrusters is an interesting question. Overall, the average relative weight is still lower (0.86 men, 0.56 women) than 2011 (0.93, 0.63) or 2012 (0.99, 0.61). The load-based emphasis on lifting (LBEL) is 0.43/0.28, compared with 0.52/0.35 in 2011 and 0.43/0.27 in 2012. Thrusters at 100/65 lbs. comes in at 0.91/0.59, which would bring the average relative weight up slightly this year but still keep us lower than average. At the end of the day, though, I think HQ really likes the 100/65 lb. weight too much to switch.

My guess on the time domain is that it's between 7-12 minutes. The average time this year has been 11:30, slightly over the two-year average of 11:00. I doubt they go long this time. Let's go with 8:00, because that puts us precisely at the 54 total minutes from 2012.

Finally, the rep scheme. After 13.4, I think we can bury the ascending ladder scheme for this one. Beyond that, let's face it: this is a wild guess. So with all this in mind, here's my scientific wild-ass guess for 13.5:

In 8 minutes, complete 40 overhead squats (100/65), followed by as many rounds as possible of 10 pull-ups (chest-to-bar), 10 thrusters (100/65)

Again, feel free to throw your guess into the mix in the comments. We were awfully close last week, and I think someone might be able to nail it this time around. Good luck to everyone on 13.5!

Fun With SWAGs: What Will 13.4 Be?

Welcome to week 4 of the 2013 Open. After a disappointing showing with my scientific wild-ass guess (SWAG) last week, I'm dialed in and ready to roll for week 4. But first, I wanted to address a question from the comments about my post on points needed to regionals. I think it's a topic that actually feeds nicely into the prediction for this week.

Reader Brian Gresham pointed out that we're seeing pretty low point totals for the top 48 athletes in most regions compared to what I had been projecting. For instance, the 48th place male in the Central East region has 211 points, which is still about 400 points shy of my 'mid' prediction through 5 weeks. What are some possible reasons for this? Well, first, I think the fact that we only have two years of data makes it tough to be accurate, especially when most regions are substantially bigger than the biggest region in 2012 or 2011. Secondly, I think I'll probably re-visit this model next year and consider fitting a square-root (or some over concave down curve), because the slope probably flattens out as the regions get bigger and bigger. Third, let's keep in mind that we've only had three weeks, and these point totals could jump up a lot in the final two weeks. Still, if I'm a betting man, I'm betting my models over-predicted.

But that being said, a big reason for this is the programming this year. The three workouts have all been relatively similar, especially compared to the first three workouts last year. Remember, if you programmed Fran for 5 straight workouts, you'd probably be looking at a very low point total to finish 48th because the results would be really similar every week. Here's what we've seen through 3 weeks in 2011, 2012 and 2013:


2011: Time domains of 10, 15, 5. A couplet, triplet and single modality (if you count C&J as one movement). One very heavy workout that really mixed up the standings, plus one workout that relied heavily on double-unders, which always can shake things up.

2012: Time domains of 7, 10, 18. Two single-modalities and a triplet. One workout completely favoring smaller athletes and one athlete completely favoring heavier athletes. This definitely leads to big variation in points week-to-week.

2013: Time domains of 17, 10, 12. Two triplets and a couplets. The burpees on 13.1 seemed to hold back some of the pure strength folks (even Olympic games weightlifter Chad Vaughn barely cracked 150). No extremely heavy workouts, no extremely light workouts (though 13.2 was all about conditioning).

Clearly through 3 events, 2013 has had the most homogenous programming. In fact, through 3 events last year, the 48th place male in the Central East actually had 308 points despite a field that was half the size of this year's field. I don't think the programming has been bad, and in fact, I've argued in the past that testing single modalities in the Open isn't a great idea for exactly the reason that they can allow athletes who aren't as well-rounded to shake things up too much. There are only 5 workouts, so we want ones that tell us a lot about the athletes.

Now, what does that mean for 13.4? Well, looking at that comparison of 2011-2013, we can see what's missing from this year's programming: short and heavy. The average time has been 13:00, compared to the 2-year average of 11:00. The load-based emphasis on lifting (LBEL) through 3 events this year is about .41 for men and .25 for women, which is below the 2-year averages of .48 and .31. The average relative weight also is low at .81 and .50, compared to 2-year averages of .96 and .62. Not that HQ is necessarily thinking in terms of these exact numbers, but I think it's a reasonable assumption that by the end of week 5, we'll end up with similar numbers to the past two years.

Let's also consider what movements are still on the table, with the number of times they've appeared in past Opens in parentheses: pull-up (2), thruster (2), toes-to-bar (2), clean (1), overhead squat (1), push-up (1). For the sake of judging, I'm going to pray they don't put in push-ups. So that leaves the other 5 movements. I also highly doubt we'll see 11.6/12.5 repeated again, since they just repeated 12.4. So, with all that in mind, here's what I got for 13.4:

AMRAP 6 of 3 squat clean thrusters (155/100), 9 pull-ups (chest-to-bar) - squat clean & jerks are allowed

Feel free to throw in your best SWAG in the comments. I promise a serious high-five if and when we meet if you get it right. Good luck to everyone on 13.4!

Fun with SWAGs: What Will 13.3 Be?

Hello, all. First off, before I get into the fun part (making a semi-educated guess on the next workout), I'd like to briefly address the controversy surrounding some of the top scores on 13.2. For those not aware, the top men's score of 387 (Josh Golden) has been invalidated by HQ, thereby disqualifying him from competition. Additionally, there has been a major storm brewing regarding a score of 420 posted by Danielle Sidell, although there is no video evidence (yet) for that score. Here are a few quick comments regarding the situation:

• First of all, I am glad HQ invalidated the Golden score. I feel terrible that he had to be eliminated entirely, as he clearly has excellent capacity, but their hands were tied on this one. The push presses in particularly were egregious (the first one was a snatch and then the rest never touched his chest), and on nearly every single box jump there was no control on the top of the box. Yes, his hips were open, but his center of gravity never made it anywhere near the box, so he was basically falling backward on every one.
• Unfortunately, this obviously illustrates a big problem with the Open set-up: there could be thousands of these scores floating around that won't be caught. Now, there is even less incentive for anyone to post video. It's a shame, because there are some very legit performances out there (I watched Kristin Holte's video of 382 and Sam Briggs' video of 383 and they were on the money). In the end, the top athletes will be put through a legit test at regionals, and no one will sneak through to the Games on shady reps, but for those working to qualify for regionals, this could have a big impact.
• That being said, I tend to have faith in most individuals. I truly believe the vast, vast majority of people are trying their best to hold themselves and others at their affiliates to standard. A workout like this really makes it tough because there is a limit to how fast you can do these movements legitimately, and for the top athletes, the only way to push beyond the top scores is to cut corners. There's simply no margin. I think most of us now agree that the design of the workout was not ideal for the high-level athletes.
• I'm not sure there's a simple solution to this in the future, but I certainly hope HQ will consider some options to keep the regional-level competitors honest. I saw a suggestion to have random video submissions required for athletes that qualify for regionals. I think something along these lines would be a good start. Judging movement is going to be subjective to some extent - but we need to see that the athlete is not blatantly short-cutting movements before we allow them to take a spot away from someone else.
• For the rest of us, I think it's easy to get bogged down by all the negativity, but by and large, the Open should be fun. Remember that this is a very new sport, and there are certain to be logistical issues like this in its infancy. Keep yourself honest, post your best score and by all means, call out the scores that are not legitimate - but keep it fun. And watch that video of Sam Briggs to remind yourself that greatness can be achieved on these workouts without cutting corners.

Now, onto the fun part. Let's put together a scientific wild-ass guess (SWAG) about 13.3!

"Science" first. Here are the movements that I believe are still on the table, with the number of times they have occurred in previous Opens in parentheses: thruster (2), pull-up (2), double-under (2), ring muscle-up (2), toes-to-bar (2), wall-ball (2), clean (1), overhead squat (1), push-up (1). To make things easier, let's again ignore movements that have never occurred in the Open (although bar muscle-ups, pistols and HSPU's, among others, certainly could show up). Now as far as time domain, I see this one being sub-10:00, since we've been medium-to-long on the first two. As light as the deadlifts were in 13.2, the average relative weight through 2 workouts is actually only slightly below average (0.93 compared to 0.96), but I still believe we'll see things get heavier in 13.3. Again, I still do not see HQ repeating 11.5/12.6, so let's throw thrusters or pull-ups into this one. And lastly, since we've already seen 5 movements in 2 workouts, compared to 2 at this point last year, let's assume this one will be a couplet and not a triplet (I still doubt we'll see a single-modality this year).

So, with that being said, here is the official CFG Analysis SWAG for 13.3:

AMRAP 7 of 10 overhead squats (115/75), 10 chest-to-bar pull-ups

/vomits in mouth

And, of course, we will see Kristan Clever win by a score of 201-196.

Enjoy the Open everyone!

Fun with SWAGs: What Will 13.2 Be?

Ok, it's time to cut the crap and make some bold predictions. And since we don't have enough data to support any sort of reasonable estimate, we'll go with the next-best thing: a scientific wild-ass guess (SWAG). Margin of error: a freaking ton. Reward if I nail it: bragging rights for a year and the possibility that people may consider me a wizard. Let's go for it!

Ok, first for the "science."  We can rule out snatch and burpees since they appeared in 13.1 and we haven't seen a movement appear in back to back WODs before. Let's assume the movements will be one(s) that have appeared in the Open before, which limits us to basically 12 movements (see my post "What to expect from the 2013 Open and beyond" for this list). Based on the fact that 13.1 was relatively long (3rd longest of 12 Open WODs), my assumption is that 13.2 will be much shorter. 13.1 had some heavy and light loading, plus some body weight movement, so I can't really infer much about the loading for 13.2. We had a couplet to start, so I'm going to rule out a couplet in 13.2 (probably not justified, but just go with it). I'm doubting a single modality because I doubt HQ wants to put that much stock in any of the other movements remaining. Also, I don't think they'll repeat 11.6/12.5 again, so I say they throw in thrusters or pull ups here.

So, with that as our background, let's make something up. Here goes:

AMRAP 8 of 25 double-unders, 10 deadlifts (225/135), 10 chest-to-bar pull-ups

So there you have it. Get to work on your double-unders, deads and pull-ups. You can take that to the bank!

Oh, and Annie beats Lindsey by a score of 402-388. Guaranteed.