Current Pick 'Em Standings (FINAL)

Standings below are final, pending any potential mistakes I made.  PLEASE LET ME KNOW ASAP IF YOU FEEL THERE IS AN ERROR WITH YOUR POINT TOTALS.

This was a wild CrossFit Games, and in the end, the bookie (me) wound up making a huge profit on the gamblers (all of you).  The field racked up a mere 5,231 points on 7,400 points of wagers.  Not a single one of the 74 entries had Katrin Tanja Davidsdottir winning OR Tia-Clair Toomey on the podium.  And I'll be the first to admit, I didn't see this coming either.  Better luck next year, and congrats to Ian M!

Individual picks are below, with orange highlights for all correct picks.

2015 CFG Analysis Games Pick 'Em Now Open

Welcome to the CFG Analysis Games Pick 'Em!  This is our second year doing the contest after a pretty good first go-round in 2014.

This year your picks will be submitted through a web form (link at the bottom of this post) rather than through the comments, although please use the comments to let me know of any issues you're having submitting your picks through the form.  I'll try to update this page regularly with a list of everyone's picks, so let me know if you spot something that looks off.  Currently the form can only enforce certain rules (such as requiring six athletes and wagers on each between 1-50), but it can't do the math for you, so if you have more or less than 100 points wagered, I'll let you know once I go to publish the next day's picks.  At that point, it's up to you to submit a corrected entry, since I'll be deleting any invalid picks once the contest starts.

OK, below are the official rules.  Even if you entered last year, please read these over.  A few items have changed.

• Each contestant has 100 points to wager on six different athletes.  You can wager those points in whole-number increments, with a max of 50 and a minimum of 1 on each athlete.
• You must select one wager on an athlete of each gender to win, finish top 3 (podium) and finish top 10.
• The payout on each correct pick is based on my predictions (see below) of each athlete's chances of winning, finishing top 3 and finishing top 10.  If you wager 20 points on an athlete to win, and I give that athlete a 10% chance to win, you get 200 points if they win.
• On the form, each athlete's name is followed by three numbers.  These are the respective payouts for a win, top 3 and top 10.
• At the end of the Games, the winner is the contestant who has the highest total payout on their picks.
• You have until the start of event 1 on July 22 to get your picks in.  If you want to revise your picks, please just submit a new entry and post to comments (on this page) that you'd like me to delete your first entry.  As noted above, entries with invalid point totals or with the same athlete in multiple spots will eventually be deleted, but I will notify you first.
• You may want to write down your picks as your are filling them out.  The form won't automatically send you a confirmation, but you will be able to see your picks once I update the public list of entries, which will usually be daily-ish.  I may end up posting them to a shared Google drive if the list gets lengthy (let's hope!).

This is all free, and there is no formal prize, but if you'd like, I'm extending an invitation to chat with me on the podcast for the winner.  If interested, please submit your email address.  That's optional, and don't worry, if you submit your email address, I'm not going to contact you for anything unrelated to this contest, and I won't publish it.

For a little bit more background on how I make these predictions, read up here and listen to the podcast below.  The basic idea is that these picks are based on the simulations of the Games based on combinations of the events that have happened so far this year, but there's a bit more to it than that.  I've made some enhancements this year, so in theory, this year's contest should be a little more challenging than in the past.  Enjoy!

Click here to access the contest entry form.  You can fill out the form on a mobile device or a computer.  Keep in mind this is my first time using this software, so I apologize in advance if things are a little buggy early on.  Let me know in the comments here what kind of issues you're having and I'll do my best to get things fixed up.  Of course,  this is not my full-time job, so it could be several hours before I get to it.  Worst-case, just post your picks to the comments and I'll get it added.

Click here to view the picks submitted to date.

CFG Analysis Games Predictions:

Podcast:

2015 CFG Analysis Games Pick 'Em Starting Soon

The CFG Analysis Games Pick 'Em is back again this season, and the contest will open sometime in the next 1-2 weeks.  The general concept is the same as last season, so read up here if you aren't familiar.  However, I'll be making a few changes this season:

• Each contestant will get 100 points to wager, rather than 20 last season.  This gives you a little more flexibility in how to allocate your points.
• Points can still be wagered in whole-number increments, but the maximum that can be wagered on each athlete is 50.  This prevents people from loading up all of their points on one athlete, and it makes it less likely that someone will win the contest solely based on one big pick.
• You cannot pick the same athlete more than once.  For instance, you cannot pick Mat Fraser to win and also to finish top 3.  I want people to diversify their picks as much as possible.
• If I can get it set up, the entry form will be something more formal, and not simply the comments section.  This will make things easier for you guys, and me as well, particularly if we get a lot more entries this year.

Keep your eyes peeled for my odds to be released in the next couple of weeks, then get your picks in. You can enter anytime up to the time the first individual event starts.  Enjoy!

Pick 'Em Rankings (updated after each day of competitions)

The contest rankings below represent what the payoffs would be using the current Games standings.  A highlighted cell indicates a correct pick.  Currently the chart below does not show how much was wagered on each athlete.  I'm working on a way to incorporate that without making the chart too cumbersome.

LAST UPDATE: FINAL

Congratulations to JesseM on winning the CFG Analysis 2014 Games Pick' Em! Five of six picks right, including a big-money pick of Lauren Fisher for top 10. More analysis of the results, and the Games in general, will be coming over the next week. Stay tuned!

If you see a pick that looks incorrect for you, let me know. I typed these in by hand and easily could have made a mistake.


Quick Thoughts on the Games so far [UPDATED MORNING OF 7/27]:

• Not quite sure how Rich Froning is back in front after the past three days. He's had so many finishes in the 20's that it's pretty shocking he could still be in first, but his ability to rack up first and second place finishes has been crucial with this scoring system.  I haven't had time to do the math on this yet, but my guess is that Mat Fraser would be in front if the regionals scoring system was used.
• Camille Leblanc-Bazinet looks to be running away with this on the women's side.  I mentioned it to a friend of mine prior to the Games that the fact that she has had so little hype, especially compared to Julie Foucher, might really help her mentally at the Games.  I'd like to note that Camille was a 38% shot to win the Games here on CFG Analysis, but was not in Pat Sherwood's top 8 competitors.  Just a note.
• On the flip side, the pressure on Julie Foucher may have been too much.  For whatever reason, she was the focus of so much hype in the community this year, and the Games really haven't turned out quite like people expected for her.  That being said, she still has a shot at the podium if she can put together a couple solid finishes today.
• Spectator-wise, Saturday's events were definitely the best of the three days so far.  The muscle-up biathlon made for some tremendous drama, and the men's final in the push-pull event had quite possibly the most intense finish that we've seen in the Games history.  It certainly helped that the men's competition (finally) is actually close, and that race really meant something. [END 7/27 UPDATES]
• [7/26 UPDATES BELOW]
• It probably goes without saying that this will be the toughest test Rich Froning has faced since he finished second in 2010. He desparately needed that win in 21-15-9, but now that he established that he can still dominate in a traditional CrossFit workout, I would still consider him the favorite despite sitting in fourth right now.
• Of the men in front of him, I think Josh Bridges has the best shot to take him down.  While I don't think Khalipa will fall far, I also think that he generally has a hard time beating Froning in the traditional workouts, so I expect Froning will continue to gain on him the rest of the weekend.  But Bridges is one of just a handful of people that can beat Froning on the classic CrossFit workouts if they're in his wheelhouse.
• If Julie Foucher isn't able to make some ground up quickly today, this is set up to be a two-horse race on the women's side.  Camille has survived the early workouts, which typically have hurt her in the past, and the remainder of the weekend should set up well for her.
• Interesting that none of our 25 participants picked current leaders Kara Webb or Jason Khalipa to win.  Khalipa is popular enough that I am surprised no one took a flier on him at something like 70:1.  It's a little more understandable on the women's side, since Kara Webb wasn't quite as good of a payoff at 18:1 and Julie Foucher seemed like a great value at 6:1.[END 7/26/UPDATES]

Quick Hits: Contest Updates and Last-Minute Games Thoughts

T-minus one week, everyone.

Not that it should be a shock to anyone who's followed the sport for the past few years, but the Games will be kicking off two days earlier than originally scheduled, beginning with "The Beach" on Wednesday, July 23. We know a little bit about what's to come at this year's Games, but as usual, most of the weekend is still unknown. As we head down the home stretch here, I wanted to get one more post in to hit on a few topics.

[UPDATED 7/23 WITH LATEST PICKS]
First, the CFG Analysis Games Pick 'Em is now almost closed, and we've got 25 people entered as of the time of this writing. I sort of consider this a test run since there's nothing to give away and I haven't really done a whole lot of advertising, but I think we've already got enough entries to at least make things interesting and iron out any kinks for next year and beyond (that being said, anyone on the fence about entering, go ahead and throw your hat in the ring - the more, the merrier). What I think is intriguing about the set-up for this contest is that there are a lot of different strategies to employ, and we've already seen a few different ones come up.

One way to evaluate that is to look at how aggressive people have been with their wagers. For each competitor so far, I've calculated the maximum payoff they could have in the event that they hit on all six picks. These range from less than 60 points to over 600 at this point. The top 4 potential payoffs so far are:

1. jayfo - 628.5 points (including 6 on Eric Carmody to go top 10 and 3 on Kenneth Leverich to podium)
2. J Weezy - 345.1 points (including going with Noah Ohlsen for win, podium and top 10 on the men's side, as well as 10 points on Alessandra Pichelli to go top 10)
3. kie - 325.0 points (including 15 points on Julie Foucher to win and a high-paying pick of Lucas Parker to podium)
4. John Nail - 298.2 points (including a clever 13-point wager on Alissandra Pichelli to go top 10)

It's also been fascinating to see which athletes are being picked most often. Remember, these are not necessarily the athletes people think are most likely to make finish in certain spots, but rather the athletes where people believe my predictions are most understated. And since my picks are largely based on Regional results, what that really boils down to is the athletes who people expect to improve on their Regional performances.

The athletes with the most points wagered on them so far are:

1. Julie Foucher - 92 points
2. Rich Froning - 74 points
3. Camille Leblanc-Bazinet - 32 points

[END OF 7/23 UPDATE]

Clearly people are liking Julie Foucher to win with roughly a 6:1 payoff, but even more impressive is that people are almost exclusively picking Rich Froning to win despite a payoff of less than 1:1. Then again, it's hard to bet against a man who has won the Games three years in a row and has finished atop the Cross-Regional leaderboard three years in a row. 

As noted before, the payoffs will be adjusted if and when athletes withdraw prior to competition. So far, Rory Zambard has withdrawn. I have adjusted the payoffs already, but the effect is minimal, so I won't be re-posting the predictions. If one of the favorites drops off, I will likely re-post the picks. You are allowed to adjust your picks at any time before Wednesday's opening event for any reason.

Now, onto the Games themselves.  At this point, we know at least something about 5 events, but three have at least some portion left in doubt. For instance, all we know about "The Beach" is that, well, it's at the beach. And we do know there will be two sled push events, but we don't know the weight. The weight there could make a huge difference; I like Jason Khalipa's chances a lot better with a 300-lb. sled than a 100-lb. one.

With that in mind, here are a handful of thoughts on what has been released and what could be to come:

• The events released so far are a pretty decent balance between strength and conditioning, so I don't think the remaining events will really be biased either way. What we haven't seen yet is any sort of high skill gymnastic movements, so I'd expect those to be coming Friday and Saturday night as well as Sunday.
• For those who read this blog on a regular basis, you may recall that the "Triple 3" combines the three movements that fall into the "Pure Conditioning" group. Without question, this is going to be a test of exactly that: conditioning. Especially at this level, I don't see these athletes having too much trouble with 300 double-unders. The row is basically just a long warm-up here, and I don't think the athletes will separate much there. I think this is all going to come down to who has the lungs left on that 3 mile run.
• Given the other events on Friday, I'm not sure that "The Beach" will actually include much running. We already have a 3-mile run and the two sled pushes on Friday, so they may not be doing a whole lot more running (plus you throw in the 300 double-unders, and there are going to be some sore calves come Saturday morning). My hunch (hope?) is that "The Beach" includes some unique stuff like paddle boarding or some sort of object carry through the water.
• Interesting that they put the one-rep max overhead squat on Wednesday when hardly anyone will be watching. Typically the max lift events have been highlighted at the Games in the past, so I'm not sure why they buried this one at the beginning. It also seems a little repetitive considering the amount of overhead squat and heavy snatches at the Regionals. 
• I wouldn't rule out another max lift somewhere in the weekend. What I would LOVE to see is a heavy ladder, but with several reps per minute. I was in a competition a couple years ago that had 20 double-unders plus 3 clean-and-jerks each minute, and that got serious in a hurry.
• Will the two sled events both be worth 100 points? I hope not. I like the idea of having these small events that are worth 50 points to diversify the competition without weighting one particular skill too much.

That's it for today. Unless there are any major updates needed to the contest page, I expect you won't hear from me again until the Games begin. The goal is to post daily updates on the contest standings, and maybe a few quick thoughts on each day's happenings.

Until then, good luck with your training, and get your mind right for the Games!

Introducing the CFG Analysis 2014 Games Pick 'Em - NOW OPEN

I've toyed with the idea of putting together some sort of CrossFit Games pool or contest for the past couple of years, but a couple of things held me back.  One, I wasn't sure if there was enough interest and enough readership here to support it; and two, I really didn't know how a CrossFit Games pool should work.

Given the pretty decent volume of responses we got for the SWAG's during this years' Open, I think (hope?) there is enough interest to do something more formal for the Games this year. So we're going to try and see what happens.

But how will it work? Well, since the CrossFit Games are unlike most sports where you see pools or pick 'em contests (NCAA basketball, college football bowls, World Cup), the set-up of this contest will be decidedly different as well. It will also give me a chance to put some of the analysis I've been doing here to use. So here's the set-up:

• Around the beginning of July, I will release my predictions for this year's CrossFit Games. These predictions, like last year, will contain the expected chance of each individual athlete winning, placing top 3 and placing top 10. These predictions are based almost entirely on the results from this year's Open and Regionals.
• Using these predictions, you enter the contest by placing "wagers" on three male athletes and three female athletes. Each person entering the contest will get 20 points with which to make these wagers. Your result in the contest is based on how much your wagers end up paying off.
• The payoff for each wager is based on my predictions. For instance, last year I gave Rich Froning a 59% chance of winning. If you wagered 5 points on Froning to win, you would receive 5/0.59 = 8.47 points for that pick. If you wagered 5 points on Jason Khalipa to win, you would receive 0 points since he did not win.
• You must make exactly 6 wagers:
• One male, one female to win
• One male, one female to place top 3
• One male, one female to place top 10
• You may spread your 20 points among these 6 wagers in any way you choose. The wagers must be in whole point increments and you must wager at least 1 point on each pick.

As an example, let's pretend I was entering this contest last year. I decide to wager as follows:

• 5 points Rich Froning to win (59%)
• 3 points Jason Khalipa to place top 3 (34%)
• 3 points Lucas Parker to place top 10 (27%)
• 4 points Sam Briggs to win (32%)
• 4 points Camille Leblanc-Bazinet to place top 3 (26%)
• 1 points Alessandra Pichelli place top 10 (24%)

I would have made 8.47 on Froning, 8.82 on Khalipa, 0 on Parker, 12.50 on Briggs, 0 on Leblanc-Bazine and 4.17 on Pichelli. In total, I'd have 33.96 points (this would be 13.96 in profit). My guess is that would have been a pretty good effort.

There is no entry fee. The prize? Glory. Lots of glory. If this works out well this year, maybe I'll figure out a way to actually give something tangible away next year.

So be on the lookout for my predictions coming in the next couple weeks. After the predictions come out, post your wagers to the comments on THIS POST. I'll try to provide updates after each day of the Games regarding the current standings. Have fun everyone!

[UPDATE 7/1: Predictions are below and the contest is now open. These predictions are final, with the following exceptions:

• If an athlete withdraws prior to the first event, all other athletes' chances will be adjusted upward to relect the loss of that athlete. I'll repost the predictions as soon as I can.
• If an extra athlete gets a wild card before the Games, I will be forced to re-run all the predictions. I won't change the methodology, so you can expect the chances for most athletes to remain similar.

In the event that I do have to change the predictions for the reasons above, all wagers will be against the revised picks. You can change your own picks anytime up until the start of the first event, for any reason.

These predictions are rounded to the nearest 0.1%, but I will use the true value when calculating the payoffs. Any athletes that truly have odds of 0.0% will be given a payoff of 5,000-to-1.

OK, with that, below are the picks. For methodology details, please see this post.]

[UPDATE 7/8: HQ just announced they will be paying out prize money for the top 20 finishers, but anywhere you see the term "money" in this post, it refers to top 10.  I have re-posted these charts with the heading changed to say "Top 10", but I will not be re-doing the predictions to give odds for finishing top 20.]