Follow me on Twitter!

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Fun with SWAGs: What Will 15.2 Be?

So we weren't exactly close last week.  I got almost no elements correct about 15.1 (including the fact that it was actually two workouts), although I will give myself a big pat on the back for correctly guessing that it would not be a repeat.  That was brilliant on my part.

Anyway, that's not going to stop me from making a bold pick about 15.2 (it certainly never has in the past).  For all the gory details about how I came up with this pick (along with all the latest on Kim Jong Un's brief stay at the top of the Open leaderboard and other 15.1-related chatter), listen to the podcast below or download it on iTunes.

The official CFG Analysis SWAG for 15.2 (Rx'd division) is:

AMRAP 10 of 60 bar-facing burpees, 30 overhead squats (120/90), 10 muscle-ups (i.e. repeat of Open 11.4)
[Update 3/5 - Fixed the women's weights on this workout to match 2011 exactly.  Thanks to kentyman for the catch.]

Please post SWAGs to comment so that you'll be able to gloat later in the event that your guess is actually not way off.  No beer on the line this week, unfortunately.

[Update 3/6 - Congratulations to JesseM (via comments section) and Kelcey Lehrich (via Twitter) for successfully predicting 15.2!  And thank goodness I did not promise beer this week...]


  1. After 3 barbell movements last week, I'm thinking none this week. Time to shake things up with a new movement and a new rep scheme...

    7:00 AMRAP
    Burpee Box Jump (24/20)

    Scaled would be burpee step-ups and shoulder to overhead (95/65).

    1. On a personal note, I'd really hate that workout simply because we'd be flooded with "just got my first HSPU on 15.2" articles and videos from HQ.

  2. I love your prediction! It was/is mine too. I think it will be a scoring mistake if HQ doesn't continue with the 2 score format though. So I am predicting another 2 part Open WOD. Its my favorite test from 2011 combined with my favorite test from 2013 Regionals. I am a little less confident about 11.4 than I would like to be though. MU's have always been at the end of the yearly "AMRAP Chipper", mostly as a separator to reward the beasts who can get there and power through them...and also to give the non-MU athletes a chance to race through the other movements. It has been my suspicion that with the new "scaled" option, HQ might use MU's in a couplet/triplet style AMRAP...that being said, I'm sticking with my 11.4 followed by 2013 Regional Event 2.

    15.2 prediction
    AMRAP in 10
    60 bar facing burpees
    30 OHS @ 120/80
    10 Muscle Ups

    at 10 minutes

    15.2a prediction
    7 mins to establish:
    3RM OHS

  3. I find it hard to believe they'd pick 120/80 just because of all the 2.5s it would require. I think when (not if) they do OHS, it'll be 115. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if @nick Momrik above is right and they skip the barbell altogether, though it would be great to seem Michelle and Emily throw some weight around.

    1. He used 120/80 because those were the original weights in 2011. I believe this was due to the conversion between kg and lbs. 120 lbs and 55 kg are essentially the same load. Similarly, thrusters were done at 100 lbs that year for the same reason. HQ was trying to make the competition a global event, and since most of the world uses metric, I believe they wanted to choose weights which were convenient for both systems. That said, it seems like HQ has gone away from considering metric conversions in recent years, so you may be right.

    2. Ah, I see. To be honest, I didn't realize the prediction was exactly 11.4 until listening to the podcast.

      So 120# = 54.5k, so 55k works for the men. But 80# = 36.4k, so women would need at least 37k on the bar, requiring 1k plates? Did that not end up being a similar problem?

      Ah-ha! I just checked, and it turns out 11.4 used 90#/40k. 40k = 88#, so their bias was definitely toward metric back then, but isn't anymore.

    3. Good catch - I'll correct the women's weight on the blog when I get home.

  4. I think it is going to be an ascending ladder in 5 minutes of HSPU and C2B pullups (2 - 2, 4 - 4, 6 - 6, . . . ) Like others have said, I don't think a barbell will be involved. 15.1 was a 9 minute AMRAP so I expect a different time domain this time.

  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

  6. 15.2 = 14.2 - OHS/C2B 2 rounds ladder ( if you finish in 3')
    I would love it if i was wrong and all of this year was multiple part workouts each week. But I agree with your points on the podcast that it likely won't happen.

  7. Just going totally brutal because just thinking about completing this WOD hurts my legs......

    10 min AMRAP:
    Ladder of Wall Balls and Burpee Box Jumps
    10-20-30-40-50-60 and so on........

  8. Not even a SWAG today, mere WAG

    For Time
    Rx Div
    Shoulder Press 95/55
    Burpee Over Bar

  9. 7min AMRAP
    3, 6, 9, 12...
    Burpees (6" overhead)
    C2B Pull Ups

  10. Big fan of the site, Anders, especially the Games prediction pool last year. Keep up the good work on the podcast.

    Was just thinking that one way to enhance the weekly workout predictions would be to have everyone submit BOTH a unique workout prediction and a repeat prediction. That way there isn't such a strong bias in favor of picking a repeat. Could give recognition for closest guess on the rep scheme, closest guess on the movements, in the case of a unique workout.

    At any rate, here's my prediction. I think it's going to be a major suffering wod, after last week's tameness.

    AMRAP 12 Minutes
    80 Burpees
    60 Double Unders
    40 Wall Balls
    20 HSPUs

  11. AMRAP 7 minutes:
    15 box jumps
    30 double-unders
    10 HSPUs

    I can see HSPUs and possibly pistols sneaking down from Regional level to the Open, and given last year's Regionals had strict HSPUs I reckon we can expect 'any style' in the Open this year.
    Not quite sure how they'd practically scale pistols for the Scaled division though - air squats?

    I also think the Team Series will be a good indicator of any new Open movements we might expect. I had been predicting a 1 or 3 RM WOD for the Open for weeks! So burpee box jumps might make an appearance too. Also we saw HSPUs in the Team Series aswell of course (with push press for the scaled division)

  12. AMRAP 10
    ascending reps 5, 10, 15, 20, etc of:
    wall balls
    box jumps

    I think this will be a more cardio intensive workout -- or maybe i just didn't do enough rounds of 15.1 to think it was cardio intensive?? ha! I liked this week's podcast, keep it up guys!

  13. I completely agree about Pistols and HSPU. I'm not as sure about Burpee Box Jumps, because I don't think HQ (Castro) could "waste" two of their (his) favorite movements by combining them. Of course, I was shocked to see Deadlifts come out of the hopper and not be coupletted or tripletted with Box Jumps... so anything is possible. I have also had this strange feeling that Bar MUs are coming this year, but I doubt they would test Ring and Bar MUs in the same Open.

    I really like your 15.2 prediction sans box jumps. I can see them using a couplet of 30 Double Unders and 10 or 15 HSPUs as an Rx'd mirror to 11.1/14.1

  14. This comment has been removed by the author.