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Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Fun With SWAGs: What Will 15.3 Be?

Well I would have liked to pat myself on the back for having a relatively decent pick last week (it was a repeat, and it did include overhead squats), but since two of our readers got 15.2 exactly right, I guess I'm not so smart after all.  Congrats again to JesseM (via comments section) and Kelcey Lehrich (via Twitter) for calling 15.2.

But enough about those guys.  This is my week for glory.  The Open really hasn't brought the pain yet, and I think this is the week HQ puts a beatdown on the community.  Among Rx athletes, only about 14% of males and about 5% of females made it beyond the round of 14s this year*, so that means the vast majority of the field hasn't had a metcon that lasted longer than 9 minutes yet.  And I think the first two metcons have been more about strategy and avoiding muscle fatigue, and less about engine.  I think that changes this week.

The official CFG Analysis SWAG for 15.3 (Rx'd division) is:

AMRAP 15 of 15 row calories, 30 wall balls (20-lb. to 10'/14-lb. to 9')

Remember to check out the podcast for chatter with John Nail about 15.2 and more details about why our predictions for 15.3 are bound to come true.  Plus we've got a short interview with soothsayer Kelcey Lehrich, he of the correct 15.2 prediction.

Please post SWAGs to comment.  With another repeat workout (likely) off the table, a correct pick this week will be a true accomplishment (still no beer on the line, but perhaps we can work something else out).

*Last year, those percentages were 10% for men and 3% for women.  So it appears the community is improving, although some of that could be influenced by athletes shifting to the scaled division this year.  We'll look more into how continuing athletes improved in my Open review in a month or so.


  1. 12:00 AMRAP
    60 Burpee Box Jumps (24/20)
    30 Thrusters (135/95)
    15 Bar Muscle-ups
    * Tiebreaks for thruster and MU times

  2. BTW, speaking of Rudy's strategy... I tried it on Friday. Worked great until I had 45 seconds to do the last 12 C2B and they gave out on me, having to go to singles before I expected. Ended up 3 reps shy of moving on. Easily got through the 12s in my redo on Sunday by doing both 12 OHS unbroken.

  3. Any thoughts on this possible hint toward pistols and double unders?

    I've been trying to think of a WOD that would make Foucher vs. Brooks competitive, but I'm having trouble thinking of something that doesn't seem to favor one versus the other.

    1. Pistols are very hard to judge due to the fact you have to watch the hip crease as well as the other leg to make sure the foot doesn't touch the ground until the athlete stands up all the way. Would be very surprised to see them in the Open.

      Foucher is probably most known for crushing chippers. I tried to compare performances of the two women in regional and games workouts last year, but couldn't come up with anything concrete.

    2. Yeah, I don't think that's what it will be, because it seems like HQ has never really given anything away. They just want you to overthink it. I think pistols COULD come out in the Open, but personally, I think such a large portion of the field would struggle to get legit ROM that it would be a bad idea. You're just giving a huge advantage to gyms that are willing to let their members slide on ROM.

      As for Foucher vs. Brooks, I think it would have to be both heavy and long. I actually think my SWAG and Nick's pick would both be close contests between the two. That being said, I think HQ might not really care if it's a close contest or not.

    3. I kinda agreed on judging pistols until I mentally compared it with wall balls, C2B, and T2B. I think it's easier to ensure proper depth without touching the floor (both at the bottom) than the standards at the top and bottom of those other movements. As for range-of-motion, do people really struggle with pistol depth any more than OHS depth? I'm honestly asking. I know multiple people that logged 0s for 15.2 because they literally can't get proper depth holding anything overhead, but I think(?) they could do a pistol? I should find out.

      As for Castro giving 15.3 away, I agree that would be unprecedented. I kinda feel like you're both right with regard to wall balls making a showing.

    4. I've been a member at 2 boxes and the number of people than can even do a single pistol is very small compared to the people who can OHS. If we were to see them, I'd bet it would be similar to the way they've always used muscle-ups in the Open, at the end of a workout where few people will even have time to attempt them. Plus, I don't want to see them because I have some type of quad strain that prevents my right leg from supporting a pistol right now. :-(

      A think C2B and T2B are among the easiest movements to judge, but maybe that's just me. :-)

    5. Well now I really hope they have pistols so I can make some leaderboard gainz! :-P

      X2B are easy to judge if the athlete is unquestionably getting feet behind the bar and then obviously hitting at the top. But less skilled/experienced athletes sometimes get feet right at the bar plane, and then _barely_ touch at the top, in which case it's hard to properly confirm both bookends of the movement. I feel like I could more easily no-rep someone with questionable pistols. I think the real point is judging borderline movements is always hard. ;)

    6. I hope this is just a scare tactic, but you could be right on the pistols.

  4. As many repetitions in 11 minutes of:
    22 Double-Unders
    22 Box Jumps
    22 Thrusters at ascending weight*
    The first round of thrusters will be performed at 95/65lbs. Each consecutive round will add weight to the previous round’s weight.
    Round 1: 95/65lbs
    Round 2: 115/80lbs
    Round 3: 135/95lbs
    Round 4: 155/110lbs
    Round 5: 175/125lbs

  5. Ah, 22 reps for the .22s in the Instagram. Nice thought.

  6. I love listening to the Podcast and reading the site. I have nerded out on CF Games (and the stats) for years. This blog is a great way to feed my addiction. Thanks for putting this site out there. You hinted that you would like to hear some other strategies. Our gym finished well on this WOD by using a different strategy than what I had seen out there.
    I have to say that I disagreed with Nielsen’s suggestions this week. I usually love what he posts. I think that his 15.2 strategy probably works very well for the rounds of 10 and 12. The problem that I had with his plan was that even some of our Regional athletes had a hard time stringing more than 3 reps together past the round of 14’s. His strategy requires you to be able to put up sets of 5 late into the WOD.
    We had many athletes into the 16’s and 18’s and, for most of them, their first 2 sets of 10 C2B’s were done at or around 4-3-3 and then 4-3-1-1-1 with about 3-5 seconds rest in between. John talked about his grip going very quickly in the WOD, our strategy was a great way to remedy this. Each athlete found or moved a pull up bar just above their reach. They were able to do fast and solid C2B singles almost without jumping to the bar. OHS sets were unbroken throughout. Our most successful athletes were the ones who could maintain pull up sets of three the longest. Sets were mostly done butterfly and singles were done as a traditional kip. This saved some muscle fatigue as well.

    15.3 Prediction coming soon

  7. I've arrived at my S(but mostly)WAG.

    I feel that HQ has made it apparent that they are choosing specific athletes for each Open week. Not just who they want head to head but also which specific athletes are showcasing each workout.

    15.1 Fraser v Froning -

    Obviously 1 and 2 at the 2014 Games. They both won their Region and hang snatched similar weight while doing it (180/185). At the Games they tied for first in the OHS event (377), Fraser placed 3rd in the Clean Speed Ladder, and Froning clinched 1st overall with his Double Grace finish (If Matt had won Double Grace and Froning had finished 2nd they would have tied on the leaderboard with 920 pts). My point is they both have huge engines and Olympic/Strength numbers. I believe HQ wanted us to see these two monsters do a classic CF style triplet and then watch them Clean and Jerk head to head. I bet HQ thought these two might trade wins on 15.1 & 15.1a.

    15.2 Letendre v Bridgers

    4 and 6 at the 2014 Games. They have some similar Games/Regional finishes...but the real 15.2 giveaway was that they were within 4 reps and 4 places of each other on 14.2 (7/337 and 11/333). If you remove non-individual Games athletes from the WW leaderboard, they were 6th and 7th. The more I think about it, I'm convinced I should have expected to hear Castro say 15.2 IS 14.2.

    15.3 Foucher v Brooks

    2 and 7 at the 2014 Games. Closest Games finishes were Double Grace and Triple 3. At Regionals they had similar placings on all the Events except 4 and 5. Foucher won these and they were Brooks lowest finishes . Regional placing: Foucher 1st and Brooks 3rd. Their most similar finish has been 14.3, 2 reps apart. What do they have in common? Top 7 Games finishes aside, I think the commonality is their engines and their ability to crush "Grunt WODs" .
    Foucher went 2nd and 1st on Pendleton in 2012. Brooks best Games finishes were in the Sled Events (1st/2nd), the Sprint Carry (1st), the Clean Ladder (4th), and Double Grace (9th). Look at Brooks from 2013, she crushed WODs that had low skill and required her to "do work" (Event3). They both placed well on 2014 Regional Event 6. Needless to say, they have the uncanny ability to put their head down and work.

    After this much barbell gymnastiness, I say it's time for a "Grunt WOD". 2014 Regional Event 6 was a long and punishing WOD, the only skill required was the ability to embrace the suck. I think 15.3 will mirror this type of WOD.

    This was too much information to justify my prediction. I guess I wanted to (over)explain myself. After all of that, my prediction is likely WAY off:

    AMRAP in 18 Minutes
    60 Calorie ROW
    60 WBS
    45 Box Jumps
    45 Burpees
    30 Hang Cleans
    30 HSPU

    HSPU is not a movement that has shown up in the Open. I think HSPU would be an interesting test to throw at these ladies. Foucher lost her 2012 Games lead in during a HSPU WOD. One could also argue that skill movements (particularly HSPU) kept Brooks from qualifying in 2013.

    Cleans have been in the Open but Hang Cleans haven't. In the 2011 Open, cleans were tested twice. The 2014 Team Series tested cleans three times in 12 Events. I'm betting even after 15.1a, another form of clean isn't off the table and I also don't believe 15.1a rules out S2OH... it didn't in 2013.

    I still predict pistols this Open. I think that 15.4 or 15.5-15.5c might test pistols. I feel they are easily judged and a scaled Open option will change the way HQ programs 2015. They have been in CF competitions since the 2010 Games. 5 years later, I sense they might be fair game. Also, I would bet there are more CFers who can pistol than CFers who have MU's(especially women).

    Ok, I will stop ramble typing. If I am right (I'm not) then I've given away too much.

    1. I think this is the first comment ever to exceed the length of my original post. Well done, sir.

    2. Thanks. It feels good to be the first.

  8. 15:3
    16 minute AMRAP:
    120 DU
    60 WB
    40 Burpee Box Jump Overs (24")
    20 STO 115
    10 MU

  9. Variation of 13.3
    AMRAP 12
    Complete as many rounds and reps as possible in 12 minutes of:
    150 Wall balls (20/14 lbs to 10/9' target)
    90 Double-Unders
    30 Ground to Overhead (135/95 lbs)

  10. I just saw the newest CF games IG post with Rory and Castro. Castro says "start your engines" and then breaks the 9 ball rack and pockets seven, an engine WOD? With 7 movements?

    I'm still thinking that Castro's IG post with the Jump Rope, Pistols, and his specific mention of .22 is just to throw people off. What if it isn't? What if they ARE dropping hints? I've already made my prediction and I am sticking with it. Just to entertain the idea that they are dropping hints:

    22 minute engine based AMRAP?
    with 7 movements?
    and 2 of those movements are DU's and Pistols?

    Sounds like that might be it. Sounds like I need to guess the 5 other movements...

    1. In the spirit of Castro's IG hand guns representing the movement Pistols, not a stretch to say pool balls represent Wall Ball Shots. Time to guess 4 more?

  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

  12. I am going to buy into Castro's hype machine, and as some people alluded to, I think the pistols and the rope have a lot to do with the workout.

    First off, I think the pistols, and more importantly, the caliber, have a lot to do with the workout. Caliber measures the diameter of the object you're shooting, or the horizontal width/length. Given that it is a term of measurement, I am going to assume that the length of this workout will be 22 total.

    Additionally, as KodyK pointed out, 7 balls out of 9 were pocketed, leaving 2. As such, I think you will only see a couplet tonight...

    15.3: 18 minute AMRAP
    Rowing and DUs
    10 cals/100 DUs
    20 cals/200 DUs
    30 cals/300 DUs

    15.3a: 4 minutes to establish a 1RM Deadlift

    Combination of the two, reps and weight, equals your total score for the workout, to remove sandbaggers.

  13. Well, so much for my pseudoscientific approach.