Podcast Episode 13: Games Recap with Jesse Mager

Today Anders chats with Jesse Mager, aka JesseM, the second-place finisher in this year's Games Pick 'Em and the champion of last year's Games Pick 'Em. Anders and Jesse chat about how he was able to be so successful in the Pick 'Em, as well as thoughts on the Games in general, whether the pegboard was too hard, if Murph was unsafe and the age at which people should stop doing muscle-ups and squat snatches (maybe never?).

Podcast Episode 12: Games Preview

Today old friend and long-time CrossFitter Alex Punger joins the podcast to chat about the upcoming CrossFit Games. The two discuss the programming so far, which events they'd like to see repeated from the past, whether or not the softball toss should come back (hint: no) and their picks for the Games Pick 'Em.

Podcast Episode 10: Post-Murph Chat and Regional Update

Anders and old pal John Nail catch up post-Murph on Saturday afternoon.  Unfortunately the iPhone caught a case of Rhabdo about 7 minutes in, so the conversation gets cut a little short (but SWEET!).  To make up for the lost recording, Anders wraps things up on Monday with some thoughts on the first two weeks of Regional competition.

Check for week 3 of regional predictions Wednesday or Thursday this week.  Enjoy!

Podcast Episode 9: Regional Preview (with CrossFit Naptown)

Today Anders is joined by Peter Brasovan and Jared Byczko of CrossFit Naptown in Indianapolis.  Both competed on Naptown's Games-qualifying team last season and are back on the Regional-qualifying team this year.  The guys discuss the 2015 Regionals, including thoughts on whether anyone will fall off the True Form treadmill, dealing with challenging judging standards, the importance of strategy in this year's events and whether anyone who misses the 6:00 time cap on "Randy" will make the Games (hint: NO).

Be on the lookout for Regional Predictions for the South and Atlantic Regionals tomorrow evening (Thursday, May 14)!

Podcast Episode 8: How Do I Make Regional Predictions?

Today's podcast covers the method behind the madness of predicting each Regional athlete's chances of making the Games.  I'll post the week 1 predictions early-mid next week, and we'll have another podcast talking about the events themselves.

Since I never posted it last year, here's the final calibration plot of how last year's predictions ended up.  Things shaped up pretty well.  The mean-square error was 4.02%, compared with 4.43% in 2013 and 6.07% if you gave every athlete the same chance of qualifying.

Podcast Episode 7: 2015 Open Recap

Enjoy the podcast below as Anders and John wrap up this year's Open.  Stay tuned for the full, two-part blog post recapping the Open later this week.  As of now, you can expect Part I on Wednesday and Part II on Saturday.

Fun With SWAGs: What Will 15.4 Be?

Last week's SWAG was another half-way decent one that at least got the time domain close (15 minutes vs. 14 minutes) and got one movement right (wall balls), but it wasn't exactly spot-on.  I certainly didn't predict that muscle-ups would appear first in 15.3, but as you'll hear on the podcast below, this wasn't something that came completely out of nowhere.

This week I double-down on an earlier pick, because it just seems too good to pass up this week, but I promise I won't make this pick again if it fails me again.  I've got to believe this week will be short, intense, and I don't think we're quite ready to repeat any movements that have shown up yet.  With that in mind, the official CFG Analysis SWAG for 15.3 (Rx'd division) is:

AMRAP 7 of burpee-box jumps (30"/24")

Remember to check out the podcast for as John Nail and I discuss 15.3, the controversy surrounding muscle-ups appearing as the first movement in an Open workout, how annoyingly hard single-unders can be, and of course, our picks for 15.4.

Please post SWAGs to comment.  Even with so many movements off the table, it will still be quite the accomplishment to get 15.4 or 15.5, especially with HQ showing that the game has changed this year.

Also, be on the lookout this week for a short post later this week looking into how the effect of the 15.3 muscle-ups on the number of Rx vs. scaled athletes, and how it compares to past Open workouts in terms of thinning out the field.

Fun With SWAGs: What Will 15.3 Be?

Well I would have liked to pat myself on the back for having a relatively decent pick last week (it was a repeat, and it did include overhead squats), but since two of our readers got 15.2 exactly right, I guess I'm not so smart after all.  Congrats again to JesseM (via comments section) and Kelcey Lehrich (via Twitter) for calling 15.2.

But enough about those guys.  This is my week for glory.  The Open really hasn't brought the pain yet, and I think this is the week HQ puts a beatdown on the community.  Among Rx athletes, only about 14% of males and about 5% of females made it beyond the round of 14s this year*, so that means the vast majority of the field hasn't had a metcon that lasted longer than 9 minutes yet.  And I think the first two metcons have been more about strategy and avoiding muscle fatigue, and less about engine.  I think that changes this week.

The official CFG Analysis SWAG for 15.3 (Rx'd division) is:

AMRAP 15 of 15 row calories, 30 wall balls (20-lb. to 10'/14-lb. to 9')

Remember to check out the podcast for chatter with John Nail about 15.2 and more details about why our predictions for 15.3 are bound to come true.  Plus we've got a short interview with soothsayer Kelcey Lehrich, he of the correct 15.2 prediction.

Please post SWAGs to comment.  With another repeat workout (likely) off the table, a correct pick this week will be a true accomplishment (still no beer on the line, but perhaps we can work something else out).


*Last year, those percentages were 10% for men and 3% for women.  So it appears the community is improving, although some of that could be influenced by athletes shifting to the scaled division this year.  We'll look more into how continuing athletes improved in my Open review in a month or so.

Fun with SWAGs: What Will 15.2 Be?

So we weren't exactly close last week.  I got almost no elements correct about 15.1 (including the fact that it was actually two workouts), although I will give myself a big pat on the back for correctly guessing that it would not be a repeat.  That was brilliant on my part.

Anyway, that's not going to stop me from making a bold pick about 15.2 (it certainly never has in the past).  For all the gory details about how I came up with this pick (along with all the latest on Kim Jong Un's brief stay at the top of the Open leaderboard and other 15.1-related chatter), listen to the podcast below or download it on iTunes.

The official CFG Analysis SWAG for 15.2 (Rx'd division) is:

AMRAP 10 of 60 bar-facing burpees, 30 overhead squats (120/90), 10 muscle-ups (i.e. repeat of Open 11.4)
[Update 3/5 - Fixed the women's weights on this workout to match 2011 exactly.  Thanks to kentyman for the catch.]

Please post SWAGs to comment so that you'll be able to gloat later in the event that your guess is actually not way off.  No beer on the line this week, unfortunately.

[Update 3/6 - Congratulations to JesseM (via comments section) and Kelcey Lehrich (via Twitter) for successfully predicting 15.2!  And thank goodness I did not promise beer this week...]

Fun with SWAGs: What Will 15.1 Be?

It's officially 2015 Open season, everyone, and that means one thing: making highly unlikely yet completely overconfident predictions about what the workouts will be.  This year we'll be unveiling the SWAG each week on the site, but the explanation of my thought process will be in the podcast for those who are interested (which should be all of you!).  My buddy and frequent commenter John Nail will join me each week on the podcast as we break down the prior week's workout and look ahead to what might be to come.

So without further ado, the official CFG Analysis SWAG for 15.1 (Rx'd division) is:

AMRAP 7 of burpee-box jumps (30"/24")

I encourage everyone to post your SWAGs to comments, since odds are you'll do better than me.

[NOTE 2/19/2015: I re-uploaded the podcast last night with the tracks mixed more evenly, so hopefully this fixes the issue that some listeners had with the original.]

CFG Analysis Podcast - Episode 2 - Open Preview

In today's episode of the CFG Analysis Podcast, I'm joined by fellow CrossFit athlete John Nail to discuss what might be coming up in the 2015 Open.  John and I have worked out together for years and have gone HAM on many a WOD in that time.  John is best known on the site here for his excellent (though generally incorrect) SWAG's during the Open season.

The Pilot Podcast and all future episodes can be found at http://cfganalysis.libsyn.com  or on iTunes.  I'll likely continue to post each new episode of the podcast directly on this site as well.

Also, as you may have noticed below, I'm not so great when it comes to creating artwork on a computer.  If anyone out there is so inclined to create a better image for the podcast, feel free to shoot it my way.  1,400x1,400 in .jpg format, please.

CFG Analysis Podcast - Pilot Episode

I'm trying something new here at CFG Analysis.  In addition to the articles I'm posting, I'm adding a podcast to complement what I do with my written work.  These podcasts are going to be much more informal than what I typically do on the blog, and eventually I hope to chat with some athletes, coaches and everyday CrossFitters.

Today's Pilot Episode is just me, discussing the background on this site, how it came to be and who exactly I am.

Stay tuned for our next podcast here in a couple of weeks, and bear with me as I get the hang of this podcast thing.

The Pilot Podcast and all future episodes can be found here: http://cfganalysis.libsyn.com  or below.  I'm currently working on getting it set up on iTunes.